Economic outlook a little subdued - but keep calm and carry on

LATELY, each fresh release of economic figures for Singapore has seemed to give cause for dismay, although this expected slowdown remains a far cry from an actual recession - as long as we do not talk ourselves into one.

Granted, some pessimism might appear warranted. Factory output was down 4.8 per cent year on year in March; this was the first contraction since December 2017. April's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index slid to its lowest reading since November 2016, though the sector stayed in expansion.

The final figures for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, out later this month, are not expected to bring much cheer either. Economists expect the updated figures to be accompanied by the Ministry of Trade and Industry's downgrading of its 2019 growth estimate from the current expectation, which is for growth to come in "slightly below" the midpoint of the 1.5 to 3.5 per cent forecast range.