Fed's 'lift-off' not quite the sure thing anymore

Washington

FOR many months, economy-watchers have been obsessed with "lift-off": the moment the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates, which have been held close to zero since late 2008. Fed chair Janet Yellen has indicated that, if the economy grows as it has, that moment would come "at some point this year" - generally taken to mean either the September or December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's key decision-making body.

Frankly, I've assumed that it's a done deal. The economy seems to be growing solidly, if not spectacularly. After a rough winter, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 2.3 per cent rate in the second quarter; this may be revised upwards. The unemployment rate is 5.3 per cent, and payroll jobs have risen at a monthl…