Iraq, neighbours need to see that their borders are unravelling

IRAQI Kurds claim that in last week's independence referendum, no less than 92 per cent of the 3.3 million Kurds and non-Kurds who cast their ballots, supported secession. The vote was held not just in Kurdish majority provinces but also in racially mixed areas with significant Arabs and Turkmen populations such as Kirkuk, an oil-rich region.

Even before the plebiscite took place, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned that the vote would be "unconstitutional" and declared that Baghdad "will not recognise its outcome". Since then, Baghdad has said that it would send in troops to recapture the Kurdish militia-held oil fields around Kirkuk. Indeed, the region's oil is the main source of revenue for the Kurdish regional government. Thus, a civil war over the oil fields has the potential to be long and bloody. Neighbouring countries, each with significant numbers of Kurds within their borders, have also warned Kurd leader Masoud Barzani of dire consequences if his regional government declares independence.

Teheran has built up close ties to Baghdad in the years following the 2003 American invasion and occupation of Iraq. An independent Kurdistan threatens to undo all of Iran's gains; it would weaken Iraq and potentially give succour to separatist movements among its own Kurdish minority of about eight million. Worse, Iranians fear that an independent Kurd state may be prepared to host American military bases right next to their border.