Might Mrs May deliver Brexit next week?

BRITISH Prime Minister Theresa May is making final preparations for a second vote, next Monday or Tuesday, on her Brexit withdrawal deal. While this agreement was defeated in January by a historic margin, she is pulling out the stops now to try to win this time around in what would be a remarkable turnaround.

While the odds are still against her, she is making ground. And a surprise victory cannot be ruled out.

With much political horse trading still to come before the vote, the mathematical pathway for Mrs May to win is relatively clear, albeit tough to realise in practice. She was defeated in January by 432 votes to 202 - which was the largest government defeat in the modern democratic era. Only three previous times had government legislation been defeated in the House of Commons by a margin of more than 100 votes since 1924, and Mrs May's defeat was the biggest.

In the absence of abstentions, she would need at least 116 MPs to be converted to her side of the argument. She is now deploying a range of tactics on three main fronts with legislators. Firstly, and most pressingly, she needs to win the majority of these votes from her own backbenches. Remarkably, 118 Tories in January - which is more than a third of the parliamentary party - voted against her deal.

One early signal that the Conservative rebellion over Mrs May's withdrawal deal will narrow next week came on Feb 27 when "only" 22 Tory MPs opposed the proposed vote on her extension offer to Article 50.

She is unlikely to win the votes of a number of the hardest-line eurosceptics on her backbenches whose concerns go well beyond the Irish backstop.

However, at least around half of the previously mentioned 118 Conservative rebel MPs are usually reliable loyalists voting with the government and are actively looking for political cover to support Mrs May next week.

These include Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench Tory 1922 committee, who indicated at the weekend that he will support the government if it can secure sufficient concessions from Brussels on the Irish backstop. His comments will influence other MPs - which is why so much could rest on the fate of the negotiations being led by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox and Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay on securing further legal assurances, potentially in a codicil, that the Irish backstop will not become a permanent arrangement which would leave the nation effectively tied up in a customs union with the EU - which is strongly opposed by Brexiteers.

A further reason why the Tory rebellion over Mrs May's withdrawal deal is likely to be smaller next week than in January is her concession of a vote for potentially delaying Brexit Day (March 29). This ballot will only happen, however, if her exit agreement is voted down again on Monday or Tuesday, and there is no majority in a further ballot for no-deal in the House of Commons.

It is likely, but by no means certain, that the Commons would take up an opportunity next week to extend Article 50. And this potential danger for Brexiteers is concentrating their minds as, if Mrs May's deal falls again, the eurosceptics could end up with a delayed UK exit of the EU at best, or potentially the prospect of a further referendum given the shift in the Opposition Labour Party's stance towards backing such a public vote.

Outside the Conservative ranks, the second, inter-related element of Mrs May's political tactics for next week is focused on the 10 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs who have propped up her government since she lost her majority in the House of Commons in 2017.

INFLUENCING THE VOTES

While the 10 DUP votes are not huge in number, if the prime minister can get them all on board, it could also help influence the votes of some Tory Brexiteers too. As with many Conservative rebels, the DUP is closely scrutinising Mr Cox's negotiations with the EU - which appeared to be potentially stalling - as they have also insisted on "legally binding changes" around the Irish backstop.

The third pillar of Mrs May's strategy is seeking to peel off Labour MPs (and former Labour MPs such as Ian Austin who left the party last week) in constituencies that voted "leave" in the 2016 referendum. In January, Mrs May got the support of just three Labour representatives for her deal.

Yet, in the Brexit votes later that same month, 14 Labour MPs backed the government, and eight more abstained. Mrs May is hoping that significantly more Labour MPs will support the deal in next week's vote, including those who disagree with the party's support for a second referendum and want to see the nation leave the EU sooner rather than later.

To try to secure as much Labour support as possible, Mrs May this week outlined some £1.6 billion (S$2.9 billion) in new funding for deprived English towns plus a package of greater guarantees for worker rights post-Brexit.

One other possibility, which could see Mrs May's deal ultimately passed easily, would come if the House of Commons supports an amendment proposed by Labour backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson. If approved by the Labour leadership, this amendment would see Labour abstain on Mrs May's deal in return for a second referendum in which the agreement, and other options to be defined - potentially including the nation remaining in the EU - would be put to a public vote.

The Kyle-Wilson amendment may be put to a House of Commons vote the same day that Mrs May tries to get her deal through the chamber. However, as things stand now, the government will urge backbench Conservatives (most of whom are opposed to a further referendum) to oppose this amendment so its prospects are highly unclear.

Taken overall, the mathematical pathway to Mrs May securing her deal next week is relatively clear, and there is a growing outside chance that she will be able to get her deal through the Commons. However, her back remains against the wall, and she and the government still have a massive job ahead in coming days if they are to get the momentum needed to pull off a surprise win.

READ MORE: UK will have to delay Brexit if MPs reject May's deal