Shape of new German govt could mean smoother Brexit
ANGELA Merkel picked up her fourth straight general-election win on Sunday, in the face of the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which surged to third place. In a race in which 42 parties fought for 598 Bundestag seats with a high 76.5 per cent turnout rate, her victory could have key implications well beyond Germany, including for the Brexit negotiations.
Despite her win, the unexpected narrative of election night was the higher-than-previously-anticipated support for the AfD, which romped home with about 13 per cent of the vote, going by exit polls. The party therefore becomes the first far-right group to win Bundestag seats in about six decades, and could trigger a significant shift in the country's post-war politics in coming years.
The AfD campaigned extensively on immigration, an issue which has grown significantly in salience since 2015, when around 900,000 migrants and refugees were allowed into the country by Mrs Merkel. Moreover, some elements of the German far-right have sought to link her immigration stance to recent terror atrocities - including a truck attack on a Christmas market in Berlin that killed a dozen people last December.
Yet, while Mrs Merkel's 2015 decision has concerned many in Germany, denting the popularity of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and fuelling the rise of the AfD, the AfD's anti-immigrant message did not cut through with the German electorate on Sunday with the same effectiveness that it did during the French presidential ballot earlier this year. In that ballot, National Front populist Marine Le Pen, who has already congratulated the AfD on its result, won through to the final round run-off against Emmanuel Macron and secured some 40 per cent of the vote.
Part of the reason the AfD did not connect with even more of the electorate is the relative sense of contentment, right now, in much of the country. Many, but by no means all, Germans still see themselves as beneficiaries of globalisation; unemployment this year has been the lowest since the reunification of East and West Germany after the Cold War.
OVERALL CONTENTMENT
This factor was a big driver in Mrs Merkel's return to power, and the key question now is who her right-of-centre CDU and its sister party Christian Social Union (CSU), which collectively secured 32 per cent (an exit poll reckoning), will enter into a coalition with. This question may not be finalised for weeks to come: In 2013, it took 86 days for the CDU-CSU to forge a deal with the left-of-centre Social Democrats.
While key uncertainties remain, what is already clear is that the Social Democrats (led by former President of the European Parliament Martin Schultz) will not join a new grand coalition with the CDU-CSU, and the AfD will not be invited.
The Social Democrats had been hoping to make significant gains in the elections, yet the party's campaign - centred on economic inequality and the increased poverty rate in Germany - failed to catch the public mood and scored its lowest post-war total of 20 per cent of the vote, said exit polls.
This means Mrs Merkel will need to look to other possible coalition permutations from the six parties who secured more than 5 per cent of the vote and will thus have seats in the Bundestag. The most likely is a combination comprising CDU-CSU, the Greens and the liberal-orientated Free Democrats (FDP), but not the far-left Die Linke party.
If so, this will be welcomed by some elements of the UK government, which believes that a CDU-CSU combination with the pro-business FDP could make Germany more sympathetic towards London in the Brexit negotiations.
Such a stance would be not be supported by the the Social Democrats's Mr Schultz, who looks likely to become the main opposition leader in the Bundestag; he warned on Sunday that the new German coalition must "not cede anything" to the United Kingdom over Brexit.
This underscores the fact that the nature of the next coalition will matter for international politics, as well as domestic policy - and this is not just because Germany is the continent's most populous country and largest economy, but also because of Mrs Merkel's influence and skills.
Although her political status is diminished - potentially only temporarily - she remains the most important political leader in Europe, having been leader of the CDU since 2000 and chancellor for a dozen years. Indeed, in the era of Donald Trump and "post-truth politics", she has solid claims to being the most influential leader in the Western world too.
Should she now serve a full fourth term to 2021, she will match Helmut Kohl's 16 years of office from 1982 to 1998 and surpass Konrad Adenauer's service from 1949 to 1963 as Germany's first post-war chancellor.
SECOND ONLY TO BISMARCK
In fact, a full fourth term would put Mrs Merkel behind only Otto von Bismarck, who served for nearly 20 years (1871 to 1890), when he was a dominant force in European affairs, having helped previously drive unification of Germany.
To put Mrs Merkel's achievements into wider international perspective, her tenure has seen four French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and Emmanuel Macron) and the same number of UK prime ministers (Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Theresa May).
Mrs Merkel has already exceeded Margaret Thatcher's record as Europe's longest serving female leader - 11 years.
Taken overall, Europe and the wider world are assessing the international ramifications of the rise of German far-right and Mrs Merkel's fourth term. While this promises much policy continuity, the precise implications will not be crystal clear until it becomes clear which parties she forms her next coalition with.
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