Slow, but not so low: the strange path of this economic contraction

THE global economy is slowing. This much is clear.

Over the last 18 months, we've seen a sharp drop off in global activity. Initially confined to China, the slowdown in manufacturing activity was first seen in Chinese factory orders in late 2017.

The slowdown shifted into Europe in mid-2018 with a sharp drop in manufacturing and export activity in Germany.

Eventually, the slowdown impacted on US activity, with key economic data showing a drop in early …