Sun Tzu and the US-China war games

ALL simulations about war games have underlying assumptions. The potential confrontation between the United States and China is no different.

The main assumption is that both parties will refrain from using nuclear weapons. The US has enough nuclear warheads to annihilate China several times. For several reasons, mainly ethical ones, it is improbable that the US will use nuclear weapons. It is theoretically possible for Chinese nukes to reach American territory, but the distance is so great that the missiles could be intercepted before they reach American soil. The probability that China will use nuclear heads against America is thus limited. If both countries refrain from a nuclear war, what is left is conventional warfare.

For conventional warfare, all military academies use track record to build scenarios. So, what is the history of wars between China and the US? Both countries had the possibility to test each other's defences only once - during the Korean War (1950-1953). The outcome of that war was a stalemate resulting in a divided Korea. But, this was a long time ago. During the Korean war, China did not have the nuclear arsenal and the People's Liberation Army has since added an impressive air force and navy to its ground troops. Since the situation is radically different, scenarios cannot be based on previous wars between the two countries.

Numerous studies therefore speculate on the relative military strength of both parties; the possibility of the US to enter Chinese territory, the probability of engaging US allies in the Pacific, et cetera. The common trait is that all studies are based on direct military confrontation in Asia-Pacific, possibly on Chinese territory. Is that the only option, and is it possible to win without waging an actual war? This is where Sun Tzu, the great strategist from the fifth century BC, enters into the equation with his famous quote: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." How is it possible that China can win the war without fighting?

The only way is to threaten America on its own territory. Only then can America reconsider its engagement so far away from home. But China does not have troops on American soil or near America, unlike the US which has troops in Japan, South Korea, or Guam... or does it? If China does not have regular troops in America, maybe it can leverage part of the ethnic Chinese population living there. According to the 2010 census, there were more than 3.8 million American citizens of Chinese descent living in the US. Chinese Americans are American citizens; they have the same rights and duties that all American citizens have, but the question of loyalty is pending like a Sword of Damocles on the heads of generals in the Pentagon or directors at the FBI. Loyalty, however, is impossible to assess in times of peace because war changes people and loyalties can shift from one extreme to the other. If it's not possible to identify loyalties, some leaders and part of the American population may have a tendency to adopt a risk-averse attitude and suspect all Chinese Americans as potential enemies inside America.

SUSPICIONS, BASED ON RACE

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It will not be the first time that a general suspicion based on race happens in America. During World War II, the US decided to put 190,000 Americans of Japanese descent in camps because there was widespread suspicion that they would side with the enemy and initiate sabotage or terrorist activities on American soil. Chances are slim that the US will put Chinese Americans in camps like they did with the Japanese Americans. As a matter of fact, it did not happen for Americans of German descent during WWII even when the US was at war against Germany, as it was in battle against Japan. It did not happen too with Americans of Afghan, Iraqi or Syrian descent during the wars in the Middle East. History shows that the imprisonment of Japanese Americans during WWII was an exception rather than a rule.

Still, the question of loyalty is there, even more when there is a rise in anti-Asian hate in the United States after the massive surge of Covid-19. Some Chinese Americans feel threatened. Lee Wong, who served the US Army for 20 years, removed his shirt in a public meeting in Ohio in March 2021 to show his scars earned during his battles in the US Army and asked: "Is this patriot enough?"

The fact that Mr Lee felt it was important to demonstrate his loyalty in a dramatic fashion, is a clear indicator that a part of the American audience is ready to accept the idea that all Chinese Americans are suspicious. This general, racist, suspicion is very dangerous because it can trigger mob phenomena and pogroms against Chinese Americans.

In the (improbable) case of an American attack on Chinese territory, or if China believes that the US weaponises human rights issue in China with the aim of splitting the country, what would be the Chinese reaction? Would it play nice and limit its operations to Asia-Pacific only? Or would it get help from some pro-Beijing individuals living in the US? Recently there have been cyberattacks on infrastructure and essential businesses in the United States. Just for the sake of the argument, if these attacks were linked to Chinese Americans, what reaction would it trigger from Washington? Would it be "search and destroy" or "winning the hearts and minds" of the insurgents? Both strategies have been applied by the United States at various times and various places with contrasting results. Hopefully, we will not be in a situation to test that scenario, but the option is still on the table.

In war games, it is easy to count the number of tanks, aircraft carriers or ammunition and make scenarios based on quantitative analysis. What is not easy to assess is people's loyalty. Human beings can be very versatile depending on the intensity and outcome of battles. Internet propaganda shows how people can be radicalised and how they can perpetrate actions that they may not be thinking about in peace times. No one knows how many people are ready to initiate attacks on American soil, or if there are any. Uncertainty as a deterrent is precisely what Sun Tzu would use to win the war without fighting.

• The writer is ESSEC professor of geopolitics and islamic business and director of the ESSEC & Mannheim Executive MBA Asia-Pacific.