Sustained pick-up needed before cheering upturn

FOR market watchers resigned for a while now to gloomy news in what has been an extended period of economic sluggishness around the world, the macroeconomic headlines of late, both domestic and global, would have surprised somewhat, if not quite bringing cheer.

There were some bright spots in the first-quarter flash data released last week by Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry, notably a strong showing in the key manufacturing sector. But what got economists enthused and gushing were the March export figures unveiled on Monday. Riding on improved external demand of late, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) - a key barometer of the broad economy - saw a fifth straight month of growth, and at a double-digit clip that surpassed market expectations. In terms of absolute dollar value, the March NODX is also the highest in two years, economists noted, as shipments to all the top 10 markets jumped. The stellar figures prompted one upbeat economist to declare, confidently if a tad prematurely, "the trade recession is behind us". But the World Trade Organization did, just days earlier, announce an upgraded global trade growth forecast of 2.4 per cent for 2017, couched in "cautious optimism", following "an usually low" 1.3 per cent 2016 pace.

Adding to the good news, the International Monetary Fund has just - after virtually writing off the global economy's capacity to deliver sustained growth in recent years - raised its forecast of 2017 world growth to 3.5 per cent, up from 2016's 3.1 per cent, citing better prospects in large emerging markets, an uptick in global trade, and a surge in confidence in the United States.