Ten years on, is the global bull market set for greater heights?

TO almost the day, it is 10 years since the bottom of the bear market - and what an extraordinarily bullish market it has been.

Since Wall Street by and large sets the tone for the rest of the world, its market performance is as good a guideline as any. Between the 677-low point of early March 2009 to the early October 2018 all-time record of 2,940, the S&P 500 index soared by a staggering 334 per cent. The annual compound rate of over 13 per cent was not achieved without blips as there were five downturn "corrections" ranging between 7 and 21 per cent. The latest decline occurred in the final quarter of 2018, and the subsequent rally has lifted the S&P 500 to within 5 per cent of last year's peak.

Economists at The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) admit that the markets have become rather hard to predict. Many Jeremiah forecasts have landed in the dustbins of history. The BIS officials know very well that if US President Donald Trump achieves a reasonable trade deal with China, and UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal scrapes through, mere relief could push the S&P 500 through 3,000 with other markets following suit. The big question is: How long would the renewed boom last?