The economy and its impact on US voters

WHEN political strategist James Carville coined the phrase "It's the economy, stupid!" as the theme of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H W Bush, he echoed the view of the majority of American political scientists, that the condition of the economy determines the outcomes of presidential and congressional campaigns.

It is true that political science, not unlike the economics discipline, is not an exact science, like physics, for example. But political scientists have been able to uncover electoral trends that more often than not predict and explain why voters would choose Candidate A over Candidate B.

And one of their conclusions has been that it is close to impossible for a presidential candidate to challenge a serving president when the economy is doing well. And vice versa, that when presiding over a weak economy, the chances of an incumbent president getting re-elected are very small.