The incredible, enduring power of Moore's Law

FIFTY years ago, in mid-April 1965, the trade magazine Electronics published an article by an obscure scientist making a seemingly preposterous prediction: the number of electronic components (transistors, resistors, capacitors) that could be squeezed onto integrated circuits (ICs) - what we now call computer chips - would double every year for a decade. The author was Gordon Moore, and his forecast, subsequently slightly modified, is now known as Moore's Law. We have been living with the consequences ever since.

Moore's Law is a quiet rebuke to those who think we control our destiny. The historical reality is that technological, commercial and intellectual upheavals - often unforeseen - set in motion forces that create new opportunities and threats. We struggle to master wh…