Travel bubbles are a good start but they are not enough

SINGAPORE'S efforts to open its borders to travellers is certainly moving the country in the right direction. It has recently established a travel bubble with Hong Kong, on top of earlier unilateral openings with New Zealand, Brunei, Vietnam and Australia (excluding Victoria state), allowing travellers from these countries to apply for an Air Travel Pass. Aimed at allowing people to move between countries that are deemed safe without having to be quarantined, these travel bubbles and unilateral openings would still require travellers to be subjected to tests for health and safety requirements.

However, these measures may not lead to a healthy revival of the travel industry just yet. Based on what we know about airlines' business models, it is doubtful that a set of bilateral bubbles and unilateral lanes alone would be sufficient to bring about sustained healthy recovery of the aviation industry.

Firstly, an assessment of the travel industry would help the government chart the bubbles accordingly. The International Air Transport Association (Iata) now estimates that total passenger numbers in 2020 will be about a third of last year's, with recovery to 2019 levels expected only in 2023. According to leading aviation industry data provider OAG, airlines scheduled 47.5 per cent fewer flights in September 2020 than in the same month last year. Of the major economies, only China is currently reporting more scheduled flights compared to the same period last year. For airlines across the world, it is clear that the fall in passenger numbers has been precipitous.