Why Brexit may now stand, or fall, on Ireland

AS European presidents and prime ministers prepare for Wednesday's potentially crunch EU Council summit, there are media reports of potentially significant movement in Brexit talks. While European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said last Sunday that "substantially more progress" is needed for a deal, it is clear that the last big block to finalising the EU-UK divorce terms is the Ireland border issue where frantic last-minute shuttle diplomacy is underway in Brussels, London, Dublin and Belfast.

Progress has been very slow on the future status of the border between the Republic of Ireland (which will remain in the EU) and Northern Ireland (which will leave the Brussels-based club along with the rest of the United Kingdom). Latest reports of the behind-the-scenes negotiations indicate that to try to secure a deal, the United Kingdom might potentially accept extension of some terms of the Brexit transition period - which could place the nation in a customs arrangement indefinitely - to try to ensure that there will not be a "hard border" (that is, any kind of physical border or visible customs checks) reintroduced between the North and South.

If true, this could be politically toxic for Brexiteers in Prime Minister Theresa May's ruling Conservative Party and could see Cabinet resignations. Already some Cabinet ministers are reportedly pressing for any such arrangements to be clearly time-limited, yet EU officials said that they are reluctant to concede a firm end date.