Will world witness 'Little England' or 'Global Britain' in 2021?

WHETHER 'Global Britain' or 'Little England' becomes the more powerful political narrative across the United Kingdom, post-Brexit, will help define UK politics in 2021 and beyond.

The fundamental question, unresolved since the 2016 referendum, highlights the fact that there were diverse and sometimes divergent views expressed by people voting to exit the EU. Some Leave voters focused on costs and constraints of EU membership, including the issue of UK financial contributions to the budget of Brussels so that these can now be re-directed towards domestic ends.

However, other Brexiteers voted for a quite different vision of a buccaneering 'hyper-global' UK so that the nation can now 'double down' internationally with countries outside of the EU.

If UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets his way, it will be this Global Britain narrative in the ascendancy in 2021 by showcasing continued international leadership from Asia-Pacific to the Americas.

As a step towards this ambition, Mr Johnson last month pledged some £16.5 billion (S$29.6 billion) for increased defence spending in the next few years.

However, his Global Britain plans go well beyond military to diplomacy with London in 2021 chairing the UN Security Council from February, holding the rotating presidency of the G-7 from January, and also hosting the UN-led 26th Conference of Parties (COP 26) on climate change too in 2021.

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Mr Johnson's defence spending pledge comes as part of what he asserts is one of the most sweeping UK defence and security reviews since the end of the Cold War now underway. This is exploring how best to tap the potential opportunities of the post-Brexit political and economic landscape, including in his first trip to India as prime minister in January where he will seek to push forward a post-Brexit free trade agreement.

Yet, despite Mr Johnson's Global Britain ambitions, there are also political pressures to retrench internationally, especially given the country's strained finances post-pandemic. One early sign of this was the decision of the UK government last month to reduce its commitment to international aid from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent of GDP.

One other development that will help determine whether the UK becomes more inward, rather than outward, looking post-Brexit, are the threats to its territorial integrity. Post-Brexit, these are at the highest level in modern political times.

Ground zero is Scotland where recent polls indicate record high levels of support for independence, including one by Ipsos Mori in October with 58 per cent. The support for independence is reflected in the voting intention numbers for May's Holyrood ballot with the Scottish National Party (SNP) set to win big. A survey last week from The Scotsman/ Savanta and ComRes indicates that the party will probably win a commanding majority and possibly every constituency seat except one.

This could be a political 'game changer' with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon pressuring the reluctant UK government to approve another independence referendum after the last, failed, one in 2014.

To be sure, London can technically block a second plebiscite. However, this may become politically indefensible if the SNP wins big in May which Ms Sturgeon claims will "make the case for Scotland to become an independent country, and seek a clear endorsement of Scotland's right to choose our own future".

Sadly, it is increasingly possible that the 2020s could therefore - tragically - witness the unravelling of one of the world's longest and most successful political unions.

Brexit is the immediate context for this unfolding political drama, given that the vast majority (62 per cent) of the Scottish electorate voted in 2016 to remain in the EU.

Ms Sturgeon has highlighted what she calls the "self-sabotage" of Brexit, saying that it "strengthens the case for Scotland (which voted overwhelmingly in 2016 to stay in the EU) becoming an independent country".

Meanwhile, there is also substantial opposition in Northern Ireland too to the UK government's stance, especially from Sinn Féin whose leader Michelle O'Neill has said that Brexit "ignores the views of the majority of the people" in the country who voted by 56 per cent to 44 per cent to Remain in 2016.

Former Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has also previously asserted that Brexit will undermine the Good Friday peace deal, and poses a unique opportunity to "unite the island of Ireland". His argument is that it makes no sense, going forward, to have one part of the island (the Republic of Ireland) within the EU and the other outside it (Northern Ireland).

Yet, it is in Scotland where the 'rubber will hit the road' first in terms of the future integrity of the UK. This is a tragedy as, despite the understandable disappointment of Ms Sturgeon and many Scottish voters at the 2016 Brexit vote, she risks leading Scotland (plus England, Northern Ireland and Wales) down a path which will probably weaken all parties given that their future is better together.

On the foreign front, the wider UK would be damaged by Scottish independence. For instance, a UK Parliamentary Committee has warned that losing the Scottish tax base could lead to further budgetary cuts to international budgets, including the armed forces.

Moreover, the UK's extensive network of diplomatic and trade missions will also be impacted. Together with military cutbacks, this will undermine both hard and soft power that has enabled the nation to punch above its weight for so long.

Scottish independence would also erode the UK's post-Brexit voice in international forums, from the UN, G-7, G2-0 and Nato. Perhaps, most prominently, it could, potentially, be seized upon by some non-permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and/or other UN members, to catalyse review of UK membership of the UNSC.

To be sure, reform of the UNSC is overdue. However, Scottish independence could see this issue being decided upon less favourable terms for the UK than may otherwise be the case.

All this underscores that Scottish independence, combined with Brexit, would undercut the domestic underpinnings of the UK's international influence. It threatens to undermine the sizeable political, military and economic force that the UK has preserved, helping bolster international security and prosperity.

This is why, with growing political risks over the integrity of the union, the case needs to be made again in 2021 for why the future of Scotland and the UK is better together.

At a time when Mr Johnson is seeking to promote Global Britain, Scottish departure from the union offers a future of significantly diminished UK international influence.