The Business Times

Wisdom from the greats to help you weather equities’ swoon

Ken Fisher
Published Mon, Jun 6, 2022 · 05:50 AM

By Ken Fisher

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” — English writer Rudyard Kipling, in his poem If

Self-control, patience, discipline: When I was young, my father drummed the lessons of Rudyard Kipling’s famous poem into my head. Today, I keep a copy in my wallet and another on my office wall.

Kipling, who dined on Raffles Hotel’s turtle steaks during his 1889 trip to Singapore, created a timeless ode to stoicism’s virtues—and a blueprint for keeping cool when markets whip up fierce emotions. Singapore stocks’ volatility amid world stocks’ slump calls for that cool. Brighter days lie ahead, likely sooner than most fathom. Until they arrive, here is more wisdom to keep you level-headed.

“Don’t panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after.” — Sir John Templeton

Not even legendary Sir John could foresee every crash. But he knew enduring steep, short-term declines isn’t the worst thing. Enduring them and missing the rebound is. That tough counsel is crucial now.

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

VIEW ALL

“If you want to reach your goals and dreams, you cannot do it without discipline.” — Lee Kuan Yew

Singapore’s founding father’s wisdom applies across all walks of life—including investing. Without loads of discipline, the fierce, fickle emotions that downturns provoke will usurp your decision-making—a recipe for failure.

“The 13 years I ran Magellan, the market went down 9 times (by) 10 per cent or more. I had a perfect record—I went down more than the market, every time.” — Peter Lynch

Lynch’s Magellan fund returned nearly 30 per cent annualised during his spectacular tenure—and he never tried to sidestep short-term swoons. Neither should you. Sentiment-based volatility can’t be timed—only endured.

“I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them.” —Hetty Green

Born in 1834, Green was a notorious cheapskate who sewed securities into her clothes for extra warmth. She icily waded into stocks when crowds abandoned them, dying in 1916 with about S$3.7 billion by today’s standards!

“To be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is to be ridiculous.” — Proverb

“Wait for the bottom!” “Be sure the rebound is real!” Downturns spur futile quests for this kind of certainty, which never comes. Waiting is costly—turnarounds’ biggest gains come early, amid rock-bottom sentiment. Embrace uncertainty. Buying too soon beats buying too late.

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett

The brutality of big declines saps most investors’ stamina. They sell when the future looks bleakest—typically just when sharp rebounds begin.

If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.” — Jim Rogers

When markets nosedive, groupthink reigns. But Rogers—a globetrotting commodities specialist who relocated to Singapore in 2007—knows forward-looking markets pre-price widely held views. That means rampant negativity queues up positive surprises, turbocharging big rebounds.

“Fear sells newspapers and keeps people glued to the [television], but fear does not make money in the stock market.” —David Dreman

My former Forbes colleague and master contrarian understood that downturns spawn scare stories—including many that never come to be. And as I often say, false fears are bullish—always and everywhere.

“The investor’s chief problem—and his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham

The “Father of Securities Analysis” was a behavioural finance expert before the field existed. Heed his warning against emotional decision-making.

“Bravery is not the absence of fear. It is overcoming it.” — Mellody Hobson

Successful investors—even this former Starbucks chairwoman turned Ariel Investments’ president—aren’t fearless. But they don’t let fear drive decisions.

“If you cannot stand hardship, it is hard to have happiness.” — Hakka proverb

Scary short-term volatility isn’t a hindrance—it is simply the price you must pay for the stellar long-term equity returns that secure your financial future.

Finally, more counsel from Kipling: “Force your heart and nerve and sinew to serve your turn long after they are gone, and so hold on when there is nothing in you except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’”

Swift declines can make fortitude feel foolish—shaking many out of stocks at the most inopportune time. But remember: Scary downturns usually end when the future looks darkest. Hold on—the rebound’s rewards lie ahead.

The writer is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, an independent investment adviser serving both individual and institutional investors globally.

READ MORE

BT is now on Telegram!

For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to  t.me/BizTimes

Columns

SUPPORT SOUTH-EAST ASIA'S LEADING FINANCIAL DAILY

Get the latest coverage and full access to all BT premium content.

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Browse corporate subscription here