Yuriko Koike could pose tough competition for Shinzo Abe

COULD Japan be bidding farewell to Abenomics and saying hello to "Koikenomics" within the space of barely one month from now, and would it be possible to tell the difference between the two sets of policies? The answer is yes on both counts, even if much commentary up to now has suggested otherwise.

By announcing her decision to lead a new political party, the Kibo no To or "Party of Hope", in Japan's Oct 22 snap election, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has almost guaranteed a stronger opposition voice in national policymaking, one that could alter the shape of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Abenomics policies. While both Mr Abe and Ms Koike are said (rather simplistically) to be "hawks" on national security issues, there is more than the suggested "marginal" difference in their views on economic policy. Ms Koike's are more akin to those of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, and in that sense could be called "Koizuminomics". Assuming that Ms Koike's new party gains a significant voice in government at next month's election - a fairly safe assumption - it is likely to push for more aggressive privatisation of state assets in Japan, a move that could relieve the government of some of its crushing debt burden.

Ironically, the election comes when the Abe government is selling off its residual stake in the Japan Post empire, a move initiated by the Koizumi administration a decade ago. But that still leaves the state as owner of enterprises ranging from railways and airports to banks and tobacco. Like Mr Koizumi, Ms Koike also wants Japan to abandon nuclear power. In what veteran Japan analyst Jesper Koll describes as "a programme of supply-side economic policies", Ms Koike's party would also push for cuts in both corporate and income taxes in Japan aimed at spurring economic activity and entrepreneurship. There would be special economic zones where entrepreneurs set the rules.