Is the AI trade still intact? And why oil might be your next surprise

A 10 per cent plunge in the Kospi followed by a US$400 billion rally in chipmakers. Big Tech reversing early gains to drag the Nasdaq lower. Gold sitting stubbornly below the US$4,000 psychological threshold. And a peace deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz but left plenty of questions unanswered. It was a week that tested conviction across almost every major trade in markets right now.

In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, Howie Lim speaks with Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy at BNY Investments, for a conversation that is refreshingly willing to push back on the prevailing consensus and offer some genuinely contrarian thinking about where markets are heading.

Why listen

• Why the AI trade is still intact but concentrated bets are dangerous  Demand for chips remains structurally strong and Korean and Taiwanese producers maintain a firm hold on supply. But another DeepSeek moment is always a possibility and Mitra is clear about where the hidden risks lie.

• Why Big Tech shifting from cash generator to cash consumer matters  The Magnificent Seven and beyond are now borrowing aggressively to fund AI infrastructure. Mitra explains the cross-asset implications and why some caution on credit is warranted.

• Why oil might actually be heading for a glut rather than another supply shock  With the UAE leaving OPEC, Iran likely boosting production and alternative suppliers stepping up, Mitra makes the counterintuitive case that oil prices could fall significantly lower than futures markets are currently pricing.

• Why gold’s big disappointment makes sense  The debasement trade has unwound. Mitra explains exactly why and what conditions would need to return for gold to regain its safe haven credentials.

This conversation makes the case that consensus is not always where the opportunity is. Listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy, BNY Investments

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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