Bonds, oil, AI and copper - Decoding divergent signals in a shifting global economy

While tech stocks soar on AI promises, financial markets are grappling with a starker underlying reality: US Treasuries hit multi-decade yield highs, oil swings unpredictably above US$100, and global debt markets face relentless structural pressure. Are investors pricing in genuine, long-term productivity gains—or merely riding another temporary hype cycle while systemic risks build? In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, correspondent Howie Lim sits down with Desmond Fu, head of investment management, Singapore at Western Asset Management, to dissect where real value lies in a higher-for-longer world.

Why listen

• The productivity lag vs compressed timelines Artificial intelligence undoubtedly represents a monumental technological leap—comparable to the shift from faxes to email or 2G to 3G. Yet history demonstrates that transformational technologies require years, not months, to reshape organisational workflows and translate into actual corporate profitability. Modern markets, however, are compressing this timeline aggressively. By pricing in distant earnings prematurely, investors risk overlooking the friction points of actual adoption.

• Structural repricing in a higher-for-longer environment Beyond tech optimism, macro conditions are undergoing a fundamental shift. Sovereign bond markets aren’t breaking; they are structurally repricing for a high-rate regime. With persistent inflation, resilient economic growth, and an end to decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, patient central bank capital is yielding to price-sensitive private investors. Meanwhile, diverging signals in commodities—with non-yielding gold sliding under high real rates while industrial copper climbs near record highs—underscore the growing division between purely monetary assets and physical supply constraints.

• Navigating managed interdependence Geopolitical dynamics add further complexity. Between volatile energy corridors and strategic US-China leverage over critical supply chains like rare earths, global markets must adapt to managed interdependence. In this environment, evaluating business durability and supply security becomes critical.

From AI expectations, bond market shifts, oil volatility, and interest rates in a higher-for-longer economy, the podcast hits all the timely notes so you can navigate markets with confidence. Listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)

With Desmond Fu, head of investment management, Singapore at Western Asset Management

Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro

Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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