BT Mark to Market: Navigating the impact of Trump’s tariff tactics
In the latest podcast episode of Mark To Market by The Business Times, host Ben Paul, provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” and his administration’s trade policies on global markets.
Walking investors through recent market turmoil, he offers insights on the future economic landscape.
‘Liberation Day’ Trump style
Paul reflected on President Trump’s “Liberation Day”, celebrated on April 2, 2025, as a day marking the rebirth of American industry. However, the imposition of sweeping reciprocal tariffs has triggered significant market volatility.
The S&P 500 plummeted over 12 per cent within four days, while US Treasury bonds experienced unnerving fluctuations. Paul shares his analysis of the 90-day pause on individualised reciprocal tariffs that Trump announced after markets reacted negatively, especially targeting countries like Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Broader implications
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
With the 10-year US Treasury bond yields falling below 4.2 per cent, and the S&P 500 rebounding by nearly 11 per cent from its post-”Liberation Day” low, the podcast delves into the potential demand and supply shocks resulting from the new tariffs.
Paul posits that US consumers are likely to face the highest average effective tariff rates since the 1900s, threatening economic stability. Trade-dependent Asian economies are also at risk of a demand shock, leading to deflationary pressures and decreased corporate profitability.
Inflation uncertainty
Uncertainty looms over how Trump’s tariffs will affect the US and global economies. Paul highlights concerns about potential stagflation, the risk of surging prices, and empty shelves in stores like Walmart and Target.
Paul assesses Trump’s urging of the Federal Reserve to cut rates has complicated the policy landscape, causing concerns about the Fed’s independence and the long-term confidence in America’s economic stability. Analysing the geopolitical angle, Paul addresses Trump’s attempt to reset America’s trade policy; he also highlights Trump’s worldview, which casts America as a victim, and his personal branding as the nation’s saviour are driving these drastic measures.
Sustainability of policy
Paul suggests that while Trump identified real systemic issues, his reciprocal tariffs are not a viable solution as they create more economic uncertainty and weakens market confidence despite his attempts to negotiate favourable deals. Paul provides a comparative performance analysis, noting that US markets have underperformed compared to international markets.
He then takes a look at other economics for this, mentioning many companies. He also looks at how European markets have attracted international capital due to expansionary fiscal policies and lower stock valuations. For instance, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index outperformed, benefiting from China’s economic strategies.
The way forward
Paul provides his perspective, expressing caution and shares his investment preference given current market conditions. He emphasises that older investors, especially those over 50, should mitigate risk due to a shorter time horizon for recovery.
Listen now for opportunities that may arise in response to shifting global trade dynamics and gain a deeper understanding of the current tariff landscape.
Mark to Market is a podcast of BT Correspondents. Look out for the next episode featuring wealth editor, Genevieve Cua. And if you have any thoughts or questions, feel free to reach out to us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
Written and hosted by: Ben Paul (benpaul@sph.com.sg)
Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Ben Paul, Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
---
Follow BT Correspondents:
Channel: bt.sg/btcobt
Amazon: bt.sg/btcoam
Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/btcoap
Spotify: bt.sg/btcosp
YouTube Music: bt.sg/btcoyt
Website: bt.sg/btcorresp
Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.
---
Discover more BT podcast series:
BT Money Hacks: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks
BT Podcasts: bt.sg/pcOM
BT Market Focus: bt.sg/btmktfocus
BT Branded Podcasts: bt.sg/brpod
BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlenson
Copyright SPH Media. All rights reserved.
