Higher for longer: what a stalled peace deal means for Asian investors
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Just days ago markets were in a good mood, buoyed by a strong US earnings season and cautious optimism around ceasefire talks. That mood did not last. A fragile truce, stalled US-Iran negotiations and oil back above $107 sent the Nasdaq to its worst day in a month and reminded investors that the geopolitical risk premium has not gone anywhere. The bulls took a breather this week and the questions that follow are worth sitting with carefully.
In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, Howie Lim speaks with Thomas Rupf, co-head Singapore and chief investment officer Asia at VP Bank, to make sense of a week that delivered volatility in almost every direction. Rupf brings a measured, Asia-focused lens to markets that are being pulled by forces operating on very different timelines.
Why listen
- Why the price of oil matters less than how long it stays elevated A 17 per cent weekly gain in oil is alarming but Rupf explains why duration is the variable that central banks and investors should be watching most closely.
- What a Fed on hold actually means for Asian asset allocation Rate cuts are now priced out to the end of the year. Rupf walks through what higher for longer does to currencies, growth and the room Asian central banks have to manoeuvre.
- How to think about the US dollar over the next three months versus the next three years The short-term and long-term stories point in opposite directions. Rupf explains why and what that means for investors positioning in Asia now.
- Why gold is behaving like a risk asset and what to do about it Gold has stumbled when many expected it to shine. Rupf makes the case for keeping it in the portfolio anyway and explains where else in commodities he sees value.
The noise this week has been loud but the signals are there. Listen now.
Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)
With Thomas Rupf, co-head Singapore and chief investment officer Asia, VP Bank
Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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