Oil shock’s rate repricing: G4 holds, gold bullish, dollar firms
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Central banks held firm this week but the message landing in markets was anything but steady. With Brent crude briefly above US$119 a barrel before pulling back toward US$110, the G4 met against a backdrop of sharply repriced rate expectations and renewed inflation anxiety. The question is no longer just about oil supply. It is about whether this shock is transient or the beginning of something that embeds itself in the broader economy.
In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast from The Business Times, Howie Lim speaks with Ray Heung, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, to take stock of a week shaped by central bank decisions, commodity moves and shifting safe haven behaviour. Heung’s read is measured but clear: markets are still pricing this as a short-term disruption, and his base case is that the conflict resolves in weeks, not months. But he is watching the secondary effects closely.
Why listen
- What the G4 actually said and why it isn’t calming anyone down All four central banks held rates, but the nuance in their messaging is doing real work in markets right now.
- Why near-term and long-term inflation expectations are telling different stories One-year expectations have spiked while five-year measures have barely moved. Heung explains what that divergence means.
- Gold is pulling back but Standard Chartered is still bullish The firm has a three-month target of US$5,400 and a 12-month target of US$5,750. Heung explains the two forces driving that conviction.
- Why the yen isn’t behaving like a classic safe haven this time Japan is a net oil importer and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike expectations have been pushed back. The usual playbook isn’t playing out.
The fog around this conflict has not lifted, but markets are giving us signals worth reading carefully. This conversation helps you do that. Listen now.
Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
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Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)
With Ray Heung, senior Investment strategist, Standard Chartered Bank
Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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