Oil at US$100, new tariffs and a yen at a 40-year low: Barclays on what Asia faces next
Oil hitting 8-week highs, US earnings raising AI capex concerns, and Tariffs - Claressa Monteiro gets this week’s market signals from Mitul Kotecha from Barclays.
Brent crude briefly touched US$100 a barrel. The Trump administration announced new tariffs on 60 trading partners. The yen slid past 163 per US dollar, its lowest level in four decades. Wall Street fell into the red. It was that kind of week, and Asia was caught in the middle of all of it.
In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast from The Business Times, we speak with Mitul Kotecha, head of FX and EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays, for a conversation that maps out what each of these developments actually means for investors in this part of the world.
Why listen
- Why oil back at US$100 is more complicated than the headline suggests It is not just the price. Kotecha explains why spreads and refinery margins have risen dramatically alongside crude, what low global inventories are doing to price volatility and why Barclays’ house view is that oil will average US$96 a barrel for the year.
- Why Barclays does not expect the Fed to hike this year even as markets price it in Kotecha walks through the tension between a soft recent CPI print and a notably hawkish tone from new Fed Chair Warsh, and explains what that means for Asian central banks already tightening to defend their currencies.
- Why the yen is so difficult to defend right now Low real yields, a widening interest rate differential with the US and fiscal concerns in Japan are all working against the currency. Kotecha explains why intervention has not come yet and what the authorities are actually watching.
- Why Asia’s export picture held up better than expected under the previous tariff wave The answer involves re-exports, chip demand from Korea and Taiwan and Vietnam’s quiet emergence as a significant beneficiary.
There are a lot of moving parts this week. This conversation puts them in order and might give you some clarity into the week ahead. Listen now.
Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
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Hosted by: Claressa Monteiro (claremb@sph.com.sg)
Written by: Nicole Teo
With Mitul Kotecha, head of FX and EM Macro Strategy Asia, Barclays
Edited by: Nicole Teo & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Nicole Teo & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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ABOUT THE PODCAST
Market Focus Weekly distils the week’s key market moves and economic drivers across Singapore and the region. Hosted by Emily Liu, it delivers expert analysis and forward-looking insights every Friday. It is perfect for investors who want an audio briefing on the week’s investment landscape and what could move markets next.
