Rising bond yields and the Singapore market
Rising long term bond yields haven’t stopped the Straits Times Index from soaring this year. BT senior correspondent Ben Paul delves into the opportunities and risks ahead.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is sitting at about 4.7 per cent, roughly 50 basis points higher than at the end of last year. Rising trade friction, energy and food price pressures from geopolitics, heavy bond issuance from AI-investing tech giants and a US public debt load that has ballooned to US$40 trillion are all keeping upward pressure on yields. For Singapore investors, the question is what this actually means for the local market.
In this episode of Mark To Market, a BT Correspondents podcast, Ben Paul walks through why the Straits Times Index (STI) has significantly outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year, why Reits have quietly struggled and whether it still makes sense to hold Singapore’s three banks at current valuations.
Why listen
- Why the STI’s 26.7 per cent total return has been driven almost entirely by the banks DBS, OCBC and UOB account for more than half the index, and Paul explains why rising rates have made them the market’s biggest beneficiaries.
- Why Reits have been quietly bleeding value With the iEdge S-Reit Index down 2.5 per cent this year, Paul uses Keppel Reit’s recent capital raising as a case study in how rate volatility can catch even well-run trusts at awkward moments.
- Why OCBC and DBS outperformed Paul’s own December call, and what that means now He revisits his prior thesis on all three banks, walks through their H1 2026 results in detail, and explains why he is rotating toward the sector’s laggard rather than chasing the winners.
- Why the banks buying back their own shares (or not) tells its own story Paul reads the signal in who is repurchasing stock right now and who has stopped.
A story with real implications for local portfolios. Listen now.
Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
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Written and hosted by: Ben Paul (benpaul@sph.com.sg)
Edited by: Nicole Teo & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Ben Paul, Nicole Teo & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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ABOUT THE PODCAST
BT Correspondents brings together some of The Business Times’ most trusted columnists in a single series. Featuring Mark to Market, WealthBT, TransportBT, and PropertyBT, weekly episodes deliver expert analysis and clear perspectives on stocks, wealth, mobility, and real estate. It is essential listening for professionals who want context, clarity, and depth.
