Unpacking macro shifts and AI realities

Navigating today’s turbulent economic landscape requires understanding divergent central bank policies, real-world AI cost pressures, and Asia’s critical role in tech infrastructure. In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, Nicole Teo sits down with State Street’s Ninghui Liu to break down why rate hikes won’t stop inflation, where AI capital actually pays off, and how global markets are reshaping.

Why listen

• Divergent central banks and the inflation trap There is a widening schism between Western central banks and Asian economies. While the Fed contends with supply-driven inflation fuelled by geopolitical conflicts and AI capex, China faces structural deflation amid a painful transition from property-led growth to high-tech manufacturing. Liu explains why traditional core inflation metrics miss the bigger picture and why one-off rate hikes will not be enough to restore market stability.

• Uncovering the vulnerabilities in the AI ecosystem Moving beyond the hype of AI, the episode provides a sharp, six-layer taxonomy of the AI super-cycle. Discover why neocloud providers and closed-source AI labs are surprisingly vulnerable—squeezed by high funding costs and a flood of cheap, capable open-source models from China. Meanwhile, the true monetary value is concentrating upstream in Asian physical infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and power grid equipment.

• Geopolitics and the dual semiconductor future Is China truly constrained by chip sanctions? Hear Jensen Huang’s compelling prediction on China’s path toward self-sufficient EUV lithography by 2030. Liu articulates how China’s parallel supply chain and pragmatic focus on industrial AI deployment could reshape global productivity dynamics, even as domestic consumption lags.

• Essential insights for forward-thinking investors Whether you are tracking Japan’s historic monetary normalisation, navigating high-yield fixed income opportunities, or evaluating where capital actually accrues in tech, this discussion offers indispensable strategic clarity. To make sense of the global market’s shifting tectonic plates, listen now.

Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.

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Written and hosted by: Nicole Teo (nicolet@sph.com.sg)

With Ninghui Liu, head of Investment Strategy and Research, APAC at State Street Investment Management

Edited by: Nicole Teo & Claressa Monteiro

Produced by: Nicole Teo & Chai Pei Chieh

A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media

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