What oil, yields, and AI capex boom are really telling us
Is the market about to break? Oil's past US$110, bond yields are surging, and the yen carry trade is unwinding — Howie Lim and HSBC's Herald van der Linde explain why.
Brent crude at US$110. Bond yields at multi-decade highs. The yen whipsawing on unwinding carry trades. This isn’t background noise — it’s a market rewriting its own rulebook in real time. In this episode of Market Focus Weekly, a podcast by The Business Times, correspondent Howie Lim presses HSBC’s Herald van der Linde for answers that go far beyond the headlines.
Why listen
- The oil shock nobody can forecast Van der Linde exposes a subtler danger: a self-fulfilling inflation psychology, where the mere expectation of higher prices drives people to buy today, guaranteeing the price rise they feared.
- It’s not fear driving bond yields — it’s AI The most counterintuitive insight here upends the popular “loss of confidence in the US” narrative. Van der Linde argues the real driver of surging global yields is a trillion-dollar AI infrastructure buildout devouring capital. Companies borrowing at scale to fund data centers are bidding up the cost of money everywhere — a dynamic investors ignore at their peril.
- Why Korea’s numbers should stop you cold One statistic reframes the entire conversation: SK Hynix generated more cash in six months than in the previous 30 years combined. It’s the clearest evidence yet that this cycle’s winners aren’t just riding hype — they’re printing unprecedented profits that can outrun rising rates.
- The one number to watch Van der Linde closes with a discipline every investor can use: track the 10-year US Treasury yield daily, because it’s the single indicator tying together inflation, oil, and the AI capex boom.
This conversation cuts through market noise with rare clarity — connecting oil, currencies, and AI into one coherent thesis, backed by a veteran strategist unafraid to challenge consensus. Listen now.
Discover more episodes at bt.sg/podcasts. Got feedback? Email us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
---
Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)
With Herald van der Linde, head of equity strategy, Asia-Pacific, HSBC
Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
---
Follow Market Focus Weekly podcasts every Friday:
Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus
Amazon: bt.sg/mfam
Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap
Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp
YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt
Website: bt.sg/mktfocus
Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.
Discover more BT podcast series:
BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks
BT Correspondents: bt.sg/btcobt
BT Podcasts: bt.sg/pcOM
BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlenson
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Copyright SPH Media. All rights reserved.
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Market Focus Weekly distils the week’s key market moves and economic drivers across Singapore and the region. Hosted by Emily Liu, it delivers expert analysis and forward-looking insights every Friday. It is perfect for investors who want an audio briefing on the week’s investment landscape and what could move markets next.
