BT Explains: Why office landlords aren't fretting over banks cutting space
THE trend of Singapore banks trimming office space is not spelling doom and gloom in the leasing market.
Who's been scooping up these workspaces, and which landlords have exposure to them? The Business Times takes a closer look.
Meet the new heavyweights
Singapore's banking sector will cut office space by 30 per cent over the next few years as office leases expire, a DBS report noted. But firms from other industries have been quick to pounce on these prime commercial units, often in prominent locations and boasting panoramic views of the city skyline.
Investors, developers and real estate investment trusts (Reits) thus appear scarcely concerned, and welcome the new mix of tenants. In particular, a technology, media, real estate and corporate blitz looks to be underway.
Citi analyst Brandon Lee expects the space vacated by banks to be filled up by tech and corporate tenants.
CBRE Research wrote recently that large corporates will probably leverage the pullback in rents to move to higher-quality and better-located offices, fuelling a recovery in the Grade A market.
At the Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Tower 1, tech firms from the US, China and Singapore are among those expressing "very strong interest" in roughly 200,000 sq ft across nine and a half floors.
Media companies and financial services providers are also keen on that MBFC space, which is part of the 400,000 sq ft currently leased to Standard Chartered, The Business Times (BT) reported. The UK bank's lease expires in October 2022, with an option for renewal.
Similarly, Keppel Reit is seeing demand from US tech and corporate tenants. In Singapore, the Reit owns a 79.9 per cent interest in Ocean Financial Centre, one-third of MBFC, a one-third stake in One Raffles Quay, and the entire Keppel Bay Tower.
Suntec Reit also has a 33.3 per cent exposure to MBFC.
Data from JLL Research showed that financial services' share of office space in new buildings across Singapore shrank from 47 per cent in 2004-2014 to about 26 per cent in 2015-2020.
In the same period, occupiers from the tech sector grew their footprint to 22 per cent of the market, up from 8 per cent. Real estate companies accounted for 13 per cent in 2015-2020, swelling from 3 per cent in 2004-2014.
Landlords unfazed, even optimistic
Keppel Reit, whose portfolio includes 10 big banking tenants taking up more than 40,000 square feet (sq ft) each, is confident of backfilling most of its potential vacancies, Citi's Mr Lee wrote.
It would be similar to how the Reit managed to fill former anchor tenant UBS Group's vacated space at One Raffles Quay, he said. TikTok owner ByteDance took up three floors spanning over 60,000 sq ft in the building, which is also jointly owned by Hongkong Land and Suntec Reit, after the Swiss bank moved out, Bloomberg reported.
Four of Keppel Reit's key banking tenants are reportedly looking to surrender their space, including DBS's about 75,000 sq ft in MBFC Tower 3, StanChart in MBFC Tower 1, and ANZ's one floor in Ocean Financial Centre.
Any downtime or "short-term income void" could be mitigated by positive rent reversions and S$467 million of undistributed capital gains, Mr Lee said.
Some investors are also maintaining a rosy view of the office leasing segment.
Blackstone Group plans to invest in more properties in Singapore due to "compelling opportunities for high-quality office spaces", the US private equity giant told BT when it acquired The Sandcrawler, a Grade A business-park building in Buona Vista.
This demand is driven by an influx of global tech companies setting up regional headquarters in the city-state. Such occupiers are keen to take up office space in low-rise buildings in business parks with a "unique campus-style experience", instead of skyscrapers in the CBD, Blackstone added.
Meanwhile, Hongkong Land, which owns a one-third interest in MBFC's commercial space, said it expects to achieve rents of between S$11 and S$12 per square foot (psf) per month for the StanChart floors that are being marketed.
That is above the average of S$10.40 psf per month during Q1 2021 in CBRE Research's basket of Grade A (Core CBD) office rents.
The Singapore office sector has seen improved supply-demand dynamics, Mr Lee said. Supply is limited, given the potential delays of sizeable office buildings, including IOI Properties' Central Boulevard Towers, he added. (see amendment note)
First movers: Big Tech
Tech giants from the US and China, including ByteDance, have snapped up real estate in Singapore since last year. Lazada and its parent Alibaba Group signed up for 140,000 sq ft at 5One Central on Bras Basah Road. In May 2020, Alibaba bought a half stake in AXA Tower.
ByteDance's TikTok is also continuing to expand its physical footprint here, having leased two floors amounting to 58,000 sq ft at GuocoLand's Guoco Tower. The space previously housed Dentsu Aegis Network.
Amazon.com Inc took over three floors totalling 90,000 sq ft in Asia Square Tower 1 that Citigroup used to occupy.
Mr Lee noted that the fall in Singapore office demand from banks and co-working operators should be mitigated by Chinese tech demand, including expansion by "first liners" - Alibaba/Lazada, ByteDance and Tencent - which are already here, as well as "second liners".
Amendment note: An earlier version of this article quoted Mr Lee as saying that Guoco Midtown might potentially be delayed to 2023. GuocoLand has clarified that the development is in fact targeted to complete in H2 2022.
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