China’s new home prices rose in March at the fastest pace in 21 months, official data showed on Saturday (Apr 15), suggesting the market is out of the doldrums amid a flurry of support policies, but there is uncertainty over the strength of the momentum.

New home prices in March edged up 0.5 per cent month-on-month after a 0.3 per cent rise in February, marking the fastest pace since June 2021 and the third consecutive monthly rise, as indicated by Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

Prices in annual terms showed the smallest drop since June 2022, down 0.8 per cent in March after a 1.2 per cent decline in February, the 11th month of declines on an annual basis.

“The housing price index shows a trend of stabilisation and recovery, fully indicating the overall real estate is out of last year’s trough,” said Yan Yuejin, an analyst at the Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institution.

Strong home sales in March drove up an improvement in house prices, added Yan.

The property sector, accounting for roughly a quarter of China’s economy, was hit hard last year as a regulatory crackdown on developers’ high debt levels snowballed into a financing crunch, stalling construction on housing projects. Some buyers boycotted mortgage repayments, further weakening consumer sentiment amid tough Covid-19 restrictions.

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Major cities have seen a rebound in home sales over the past month, as pent-up demand was unleashed after China abruptly rolled back Covid-19 curbs in December.

Among 70 cities surveyed by the NBS, 64 cities saw an uptick in new home prices in monthly terms, the most cities since May 2019 and up from 55 in February.

The increase in house prices was broad-based among all city tiers, which all extended their month-on-month gains.

However, analysts say it is still too early to tell whether the nascent property recovery will be sustained, because of the uncertainty over consumer confidence.

“The property sector recovery should be gradual and bumpy, due to the challenging demographic trend, still-tight financing conditions for troubled developers, and policymakers’ long-held stance that ‘housing is for living in, not for speculation’,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, commenting on the data.

Last month, more than 50 cities introduced stimulus policies or relaxed some property rules, including subsidies, more housing provident funds and easing home-purchase curbs.

“The biggest problem in the economy is insufficient demand, with increasing deflationary pressure. The continued stabilisation of real estate is critical as recent data showing sales growth has slowed,” said Wu Jinhui, analyst at CSCI Pengyuan Credit Rating.

“In the second quarter, there is room for policy relaxation on both the supply and demand side, such as a balance sheet improvement for high-quality property firms, smaller down payments and cuts in mortgage rates.”

Credit data this week suggested the growth of household medium- to long-term loans – which are mostly mortgages – accelerated in March, in line with improved property transactions.

Earlier in April, the central bank released a quarterly survey of urban depositors that showed that 17.5 per cent of respondents had plans to buy a home during the next three months, up from 16 per cent in the previous quarterly survey.

China will release property sales and investment data for March on Tuesday, along with economic activity data and first-quarter gross domestic product. REUTERS