Fannie and Freddie shares tank as doubt swirls about Trump plans

[WASHINGTON] Shares of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, down about 70 per cent in the last six months, hit their lowest level in more than a year as investors cast doubt on the Trump administration’s efforts to sell more stock in the mortgage-finance giants to the public.

The shares have been on a steep decline since mid-September, shortly after optimism peaked that a public offering for the agencies could come in 2025. That did not happen.

A separate class of shares called preferred equity, which are largely owned by long-term institutional investors, have also declined. Freddie perpetual shares are down about 23 per cent in the past month, leaving them close to where they traded in the days after President Donald Trump’s election win.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees Fannie and Freddie, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The agencies have been facing a “total unwind” due to fading clarity about plans for the companies, BTIG analyst Eric Hagen said.

Plus, their shares tend to drop when yields on 10-year Treasuries – a benchmark for borrowing costs – rise, as they did on Wednesday (Mar 18) as Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell spoke after the central bank held interest rates steady.

“The stocks have actually become more inversely correlated to interest rates, mainly on the read-through that Trump could look to counter the impact of higher rates by exercising even more control” over the companies, Hagen said via e-mail.

Fannie and Freddie have been under Washington’s control since the great financial crisis. In August, shares surged following reports that the White House had plans for an initial public offering (IPO) that could value the enterprises at around US$500 billion or more, and would involve selling 5 to 15 per cent of their stock to raise about US$30 billion.

But few concrete details have emerged since, and the administration’s attention has seemingly shifted to other priorities, such as the war in Iran.

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Rising mortgage rates could also keep housing affordability a top issue, potentially making officials wary of pursuing share offering plans due to the risk that it could push mortgage rates higher by raising questions about the extent of the companies’ government support.

“Without a decision on GSE next steps, the near-term outlook is unclear,” Evercore ISI analyst Matthew Aks said in an e-mail. “But there’s still plenty of time left in this administration for the GSEs to re-emerge as a priority.”

Last week, Wedbush analyst Henry Coffey said he did not see a share offering for the mortgage agencies launching until at least after the US midterm elections in November.

With Trump “clearly focused elsewhere”, Coffey expects that the administration’s only statements about Fannie and Freddie, if any at all, will focus on “lowering mortgage cost for residential borrowers”. He also cut his price targets on their common shares.

Economist and investor Peter Schiff raised further doubts on Tuesday.

“True privatisation is impossible,” he wrote in a post on X. “Any misguided move to privatise gains while leaving taxpayers on the hook for losses would raise mortgage rates and lower home prices.”

His conclusion: “Trump won’t follow through.”

Earlier this week, Oksenholt Capital Management said it had “taken profits in portions of our Fannie Mae common position”, but added that “we remain bullish on both enterprises and their junior preferred securities.”

Oksenholt and its affiliated investment vehicles are among the largest holders of Freddie common stock, the firm said on Monday.

It is not entirely clear what triggered a more than 20 per cent drop in common shares this week. One potential catalyst is the absence of detailed plans to sell shares to the public in a strategic report released by the FHFA. If so, investors may be overreacting, because that document is not a venue for major policy updates, said Aks, the Evercore analyst.

Last week, Trump signed executive orders aimed at making home ownership more affordable, part of efforts to ease cost-of-living concerns as the Iran conflict drives up petrol prices and rattles markets. Those directives had no mention of an IPO or other plans to release Fannie and Freddie. BLOOMBERG