HDB resale price growth eases to 0.4% in Q3, slowest in 5 years
Analysts say prices appear to be stabilising and could consolidate further in Q4
[SINGAPORE] Resale prices of Singapore’s public housing flats rose at their slowest pace in five years in the third quarter of 2025, as a large batch of new housing supply diverted demand away from the resale market.
Data released by the Housing & Development Board on Friday (Oct 24) showed that prices of resale flats inched up 0.4 per cent in Q3, down from the 0.9 per cent rise in Q2 and 1.6 per cent gain in Q1.
HDB resale prices appear to be stabilising after heated growth last year, analysts said, and could consolidate further in the last quarter. In 2024, prices had accelerated to gain a total of 9.7 per cent in the year – almost double the growth posted in 2023.
“With more sellers asking for record prices and buyers showing resistance, the rising price disparities have led to slower deal negotiations and a generally more challenging resale market,” said Christine Sun, Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group chief researcher and strategist.
Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia’s senior director for data analytics, noted that prices have surged 55.7 per cent since bottoming out in Q2 2019. Compared to April 2020, when “circuit-breaker” measures were introduced, prices have appreciated by 54.4 per cent.
The rise of 0.4 per cent in Q3 was unchanged from earlier flash estimates released on Oct 1.
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It is also the smallest quarterly increase in resale prices since Q2 2020, when 0.3 per cent growth was recorded. Since then, the quarterly increase in prices have ranged from 0.9 per cent to 3.4 per cent.
In the first nine months of the year, resale flat prices rose 2.9 per cent; Realion’s Sun noted that this was less than the 6.9 per cent recorded in 9M 2024 and 3.8 per cent in 9M 2023.
Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), pointed to the launch of more than 10,000 new flats in July, with over 5,500 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats and 4,600 sales of balance flats available.
Of these, more than 3,900 flats were either completed or had a shorter waiting time of under three years; Huttons Asia’s Lee said this diverted demand from the HDB resale market.
Resale volume consequently fell 11.3 per cent year on year (yoy). On a quarter-on-quarter (qoq) basis, volume rose a slight 1.7 per cent to 7,221 units, from 7,102 units in Q2.
ERA key executive officer Eugene Lim said homebuyers may have been drawn to the private market as well, especially those with larger budgets who may have been considering million-dollar flats priced at up to S$1.5 million.
“With about 29 per cent of all private non-landed home sales transacting within this price range, upgraders were presented with compelling alternatives,” said Lim. “This could have helped temper the demand for higher-value resale flats.”
At the same time, Lee reckoned that the moderation in price growth could imply price resistance among buyers.
He pointed out that while 15 out of 26 HDB towns booked price gains of between 0.3 and 7.8 per cent in Q3, this was the first time since 2019 that more than 10 towns had seen a quarterly decline in prices. Three-room and executive flats also saw a drop in average prices.
Resale flats in Clementi racked up the largest gains of 7.8 per cent, followed by flats in the Central Area with 6.3 per cent and Geylang at 5 per cent.
HDB’s Q3 data showed the HDB towns with the highest median resale prices were Sengkang for three-room flats, at S$550,000; the central region for four-room flats, at S$1.35 million; and Hougang for five-room and executive flats, at S$997,000.
Wong Siew Ying, PropNex head of research and content, noted that the number of million-dollar resale transactions hit a new high in Q3, with 480 such units sold.
ERA’s Lim said that, of these, 11 were sold for more than S$1.5 million, with all but one less than 15 years old.
Some were located in Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah, two estates that consistently see million-dollar flats, Lim pointed out. “Coincidentally, these two residential towns have been selected as project sites for the October BTO exercise, signalling efforts to temper demand for HDB flats in these popular estates.”
This brought the tally of million-dollar flats for 9M 2025 to 1,243 units, which Wong noted surpasses the 1,035 transactions posted for the whole of 2024.
Given the current trajectory, Wong predicts that the number of million-dollar flats sold could close at around 1,500 in 2025.
In the rental market, there were 59,001 HDB flats rented out as at the end of Q3, a minute increase of 0.5 per cent from Q2.
HDB approved 10,123 applications to rent out these flats, a 0.6 per cent rise qoq, and an 11 per cent increase yoy.
Looking ahead
Huttons Asia’s Lee said that in Q4, prices may consolidate further, bringing full-year growth to 3 to 4 per cent. Resale volumes are expected to range between 26,000 and 28,000 units.
Some 13,500 flats are likely to reach their minimum occupation period in 2026, which SRI’s Sandrasegeran said would help to “refresh the supply pool and keep the market dynamic”.
Realion’s Sun said leasing demand may soften as well, as ongoing economic uncertainties continue to weigh on businesses. This could result in a “modest” 2 per cent increase in rents for the year.
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