HDB resale price growth slows to 2.9% in 2025, but million-dollar flats stay hot

[SINGAPORE] The Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale market showed signs of a two-speed trend in 2025, as overall price growth eased while million-dollar flat prices continued to rise, setting new benchmarks in the fourth quarter.

Overall, resale prices were flat in Q4, bringing full-year price growth to 2.9 per cent – significantly slower than the 9.7 per cent increase in 2024. It also marked the slowest annual price growth since 2019, HDB data showed on Friday (Jan 23).

Meanwhile, the average price of flats transacted at S$1 million or more rose 2.1 per cent to S$1.14 million, from S$1.12 million in 2024, said Huttons Asia senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck.

Price growth in the secondary market has slowed for five consecutive quarters since Q3 2024. Lee noted that this came amid a “steady supply of flats” under the Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats exercises.

He added that prices fell in 16 of the 26 towns, declining by between 0.9 and 11.1 per cent in Q4 2025 – the first time since Q3 2019 that more than half of towns recorded a quarterly price contraction.

Still, Lee pointed out that prices have appreciated 55.7 per cent since bottoming out in Q2 2019 and 54.4 per cent since the “circuit breaker” in April 2020.

By towns, resale flats in the central area recorded the largest decline of 11.1 per cent, followed by Ang Mo Kio at 7.6 per cent and Toa Payoh at 5.2 per cent, he added.

ERA Singapore key executive officer Eugene Lim attributed the slower price growth to the limited supply of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP), which stood at 6,973 units in 2025.

This was the lowest since 2014, when 5,301 units came online.

SEE ALSO

Property players call for lower ABSD on foreign buyers, review of EC income and loan caps

HDB starts work on BTO flats in Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 not announced for sale yet

Higher occupancy cap for HDB, private home rentals extended until end-2028 to meet strong demand

A flat Q4 slows HDB resale price momentum to 2.9% growth in 2025: flash data

More

“With fewer newer eligible resale flats entering the market, transaction activity remained constrained, resulting in more measured price movements,” said Lim.

But Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), said this limited supply of newer resale flats concentrated demand at the higher end, contributing to a rise in million-dollar deals in 2025.

Record number of premium deals

The number of million-dollar resale flats sold jumped to a new record of 1,594 units in 2025. Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, noted that this was 54 per cent higher than the previous peak of 1,035 units in 2024.

This was not at odds with the overall slowing trend of resale prices, but “continues to reflect segmentation within the resale flat market”, she said.

Huttons Asia’s Lee noted that while many of these premium flats ranged from S$1 million to S$1.1 million, there was a “sharp jump in the number of flats sold above S$1.4 million”.

He added that million-dollar flats accounted for around 6.1 per cent of islandwide market volume.

Around 91 per cent of flats resold for at least S$1 million were in mature towns. Wong said the top three towns for such sales were Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah and Queenstown, which collectively booked 691 deals.

Overall transaction volume of resale flats fell 27.2 per cent in Q4 to 5,256 units, from 7,221 units in the previous quarter. Year on year, this was an 18.2 per cent decrease.

For the whole of 2025, there were 26,169 resale transactions, down 9.7 per cent from the prior year’s 28,986.

The last time annual resale volume declined was in 2023, when there was a 4.2 per cent drop from the year before – less than half the current rate of decline, said HDB.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, attributed the more subdued activity partly to longer transaction timelines and fewer completed deals, due to a widening gap between sellers’ high price expectations and buyers’ resistance.

Stable resale market in 2026

Analysts expect the HDB resale market to stay stable in 2026, with prices projected to rise 1 to 5 per cent, and transaction volumes estimated between 24,000 and 27,000 units.

HDB will launch about 19,600 BTO flats across three sales exercises in 2026. This includes more than 4,000 units, or about one-fifth of 2026 flat supply, with wait times of less than three years.

HDB said it is prepared to offer more than 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027 to meet housing demand, if necessary.

In February 2026, HDB will launch about 4,600 BTO flats in Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Tampines and Toa Payoh. A concurrent Sale of Balance Flats exercise offering about 3,000 flats will also be held.

Said Lee: “The increase may potentially meet the demand arising from a review of income ceiling for BTO flats, lowering the age threshold for singles buying a BTO flat, and lifting the 15-month wait-out period for ex-private property owners buying HDB resale flats.”

About 13,484 MOP flats are set to hit the market this year, offering buyers more options in the resale market. SRI’s Sandrasegeran said this will likely improve resale supply depth, particularly in segments that previously experienced tighter availability.

But with about 60 per cent of MOP flats coming from mature estates, more units may be transacted for at least S$1 million, said Lee, pointing to Punggol, Queenstown and Tampines being the top three towns with the most flats reaching MOP.

He estimates the number of million-dollar flat transactions to come in at between 1,400 and 1,800 in 2026.

PropNex’s Wong expects million-dollar resale flat transactions to remain elevated in 2026 – possibly crossing 1,000 units again – as well-located flats and units with sought-after attributes continue to command healthy demand.

“We expect such sales could concentrate in a narrow segment and may not materially affect pricing for the vast majority of resale flat buyers, who should still be able to find other affordable options in the wider HDB resale market.”