HDB resale price growth slows further to 0.4% in Q3: flash data
Analysts expect resale prices to rise 3-6% and total transactions to hit 26,000-28,000 units for the full year
[SINGAPORE] Resale prices of Housing & Development Board (HDB) flats continued to rise in the third quarter of 2025, but at a slower pace of 0.4 per cent compared with 0.9 per cent in the second quarter.
This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of slowdown in price growth and is the lowest quarter-on-quarter growth since Q2 2020, flash data from HDB indicated on Wednesday (Oct 1).
On a yearly basis, prices rose by 5.6 per cent. For the year to date, prices climbed 2.9 per cent, which is lower than the 3.8 per cent growth in the first three quarters of 2023 and the 6.9 per cent growth in the same period in 2024, said Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.
She added that more sellers are demanding record-high prices while buyers are increasingly reluctant to meet sellers’ price expectations. The widening price gap has led to slower deal negotiations and a more challenging resale market.
Prices of all resale flat types had smaller gains in Q3 compared to the preceding quarter, said Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck.
Based on caveats lodged, the average price of a four-room apartment rose 0.3 per cent to S$676,638, slowing from the 1.4 per cent increase in Q2. Meanwhile, the average price of five-bedders increased 0.7 per cent to S$784,807, moderating from a 1.2 per cent gain in the previous quarter.
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Lee Nai Jia, head of real estate intelligence at PropertyGuru Group, noted that price growth varied across towns, flat types and lease profiles.
Bukit Merah led the increase, with four-room flats up 2.9 per cent on quarter, while three-room flats in Hougang rose 2.5 per cent. In contrast, three-bedders in Queenstown fell by about 2 per cent, largely because many affected blocks have less than 50 years of lease remaining, said Lee.
Demand eases
Market watchers attributed the slowdown in overall price growth to softening demand for resale flats.
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Transaction volumes of resale flats stood at 7,157 units as at Monday, down 10.9 per cent from the same period the previous year.
In the first nine months of 2025, a total of 20,849 HDB resale flats changed hands, down 7.6 per cent from 22,562 units sold in the year-ago period, said Nicholas Mak, chief research officer of Mogul.sg.
“These figures partly reflect the results of the government’s effort to cool the HDB resale market with a steady supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats, as well as the effects of a slowing economy,” he added.
In July, HDB offered 1,396 BTO flats with a shorter waiting time of under three years, along with more than 4,600 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) units, of which 1,733 were completed.
This month, the government will launch the final sales exercises for the year, offering more than 9,000 BTO flats in Ang Mo Kio, Bedok, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Jurong East, Sengkang, Toa Payoh and Yishun.
Moreover, the policy shift in July – increasing the allocation of BTO flats to second-timer families by five percentage points – likely eased demand pressures on larger resale flats, said Huttons Asia’s Lee.
Citing caveats, he pointed out that quarterly changes in transaction volumes for four and five-bedders, and executive/multi-gen flats stabilised in Q3, ranging from -0.2 per cent to 0.9 per cent, compared with the 7.4 per cent to 16.5 per cent growth in Q2.
Million-dollar flats
Even as overall resale activity moderated, the market for HDB flats transacting at S$1 million and above remained active.
Huttons Asia’s Lee noted that 480 resale flats sold for at least S$1 million in Q3, up 15.7 per cent from 415 units in the previous quarter. He added that the average price of these flats edged down slightly to S$1.138 million, from S$1.14 million in Q2, reflecting buyer resistance to high asking prices.
So far this year, 1,243 resale flats have changed hands for at least S$1 million, surpassing the all-time high of 1,035 units sold in the entire 2024, said Wong Siew Ying, PropNex Realty’s head of research and content.
“At this rate, the number of flats resold for at least S$1 million looks certain to exceed 1,500 units this year,” she added.
Flats in mature estates continue to account for the majority of million-dollar transactions, said ERA Singapore’s key executive officer Eugene Lim.
ERA data showed that in Q3, Toa Payoh recorded 89 flats being sold for at least S$1 million. This was followed by Bukit Merah and Kallang/Whampoa, which saw 58 and 40 of such flats change hands, respectively.
Flats under 15 years old are making up a growing share of million-dollar transactions; in Q3 2025, 246 such flats were sold, representing more than half of all million-dollar transactions, said Lim.
He added that 11 transactions crossed the S$1.5 million mark in Q3, with 10 of them involving flats under 15 years old.
Resale market to slow
Analysts noted that the upcoming BTO launch in popular locations, such as Bishan and Greater Southern Waterfront, could divert some demand from the secondary market. Seasonal factors, including year-end holidays, may also dampen market activity.
PropNex’s Wong said with the government looking to review the monthly household income ceiling for BTO flats, demand for resale flats could moderate further.
Some buyers who previously turned to resale flats because they were ineligible for BTO flats may now qualify, she added.
For the full year, resale prices are projected to rise 3 to 6 per cent, with total transactions reaching between 26,000 and 28,000 units.
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