HDB resale prices down 0.1% in Q1, first fall in nearly 7 years: flash data

[SINGAPORE] Resale prices of Housing & Development Board (HDB) flats fell for the first time in nearly seven years in the first quarter of 2026, dipping 0.1 per cent after a flat Q4.

This marks the first decline since Q2 2019 and comes on the back of five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth, flash data from HDB indicated on Wednesday (Apr 1).

Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, said the HDB resale market is adjusting towards a more sustainable phase, following various rounds of cooling measures and the ramp-up in new flat supply in recent years.

“That said, we anticipate that the market performance will remain differentiated; well-located flats, newer units and those with desirable attributes could continue to see firm demand and (are) likely to command higher prices,” she added.

The Q1 decline was led by a 1.6 per cent decrease in the median transacted price of resale executive flats to S$900,000.

Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at Mogul.sg, noted that the median resale price of four-room units slipped 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter to S$628,888.

While the median price of five-room flats rose 1.1 per cent to S$748,000 in Q1, the increase was not enough to reverse the overall decline in the resale price index, he added.

Still, Mak reckoned that the dip will be short-lived. “Our analysis of the HDB resale price trends over the past 35 years shows that in the absence of an economic recession or a severe glut in the HDB resale market, prices will always increase, especially when resident population size and household income are rising.”

Housing demand will be propped up by new immigrants laying roots in Singapore, he said, driving up resale prices and private housing.

SEE ALSO

Singapore private home prices rise 0.3% in Q1, easing from 0.6% in Q4: URA flash data

Time to cool EC demand: drop deferred payment scheme, lengthen MOP, tighten resale restrictions

Mega mixed-use Bayshore site for 1,280 homes could draw bids of up to S$2 billion

“Therefore, the resale prices of HDB flats (are) expected to recover in the later part of this year, and will end this year with modest 0.3 to 1 per cent growth.”

The dip comes amid a growing supply of resale flats and a steady pipeline of Build-To-Order (BTO) launches.

The number of resale flats reaching their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP) is projected to rise from 6,973 units in 2025 to 13,484 in 2026, before climbing further to 18,939 in 2027 and 21,393 in 2028.

Nearly 70 per cent of flats reaching their MOP this year are located in popular estates. ERA data showed that Punggol will have the most such units, at 3,222, followed by Queenstown with 2,405 units, Tampines with 2,133 flats and Toa Payoh with 1,594 units.

Flats in these locations are likely to command higher asking prices, supported by their “strong location appeal and relatively longer remaining leases”, said ERA Singapore key executive officer Eugene Lim.

“As these flats are not subject to the tighter resale restrictions under the Plus and Prime models, they are expected to attract a broader pool of buyers, further underpinning demand,” he added.

Million-dollar flats still hot

Even as overall resale activity moderated, the market for HDB flats transacting at S$1 million and above remained active.

In Q1, there were at least 412 flats resold for at least S$1 million, PropNex’s Wong noted, pointing out that this was nearly 18 per cent higher than the 350 such flats transacted in the previous quarter.

Of the 412 flats, about 15 per cent, or 63 units, had recently reached their MOP as they had a lease balance of 94 years or more at the point of sale. These included units at Northshore StraitsView in Punggol, Ang Mo Kio Court and SkyParc @ Dawson.

Nine new towns recorded new all-time high transacted resale flat prices in Q1: Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Clementi, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Queenstown, Sembawang, Sengkang and Tampines.

In particular, a five-room flat in Dawson Road fetched S$1.7 million – a record high for that flat type and across all resale flats.

Two-room flats also touched a new high, with a unit at SkyParc @ Dawson resold for S$695,000, said Wong.

Demand eases

Transaction volumes of resale flats stood at 6,179 units as at Mar 30, down 4.5 per cent from the 6,473 deals recorded in the same period a year earlier.

Buyers gravitated towards the primary market, said Huttons Asia senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck, pointing out that there were more than 15,000 applicants in the February Sale of Balance Flats exercise.

Resale homebuyers fell into “two camps”, he noted, with one prioritising newer flats and the other prioritising space. He added that larger executive/multi-generational flats recorded a 32.5 per cent jump in transaction volume, while newer four-room MOP flats saw more interest.

In Q1, 2,682 four-room flats were sold, marking an 18.5 per cent increase from the previous quarter. This was followed by five-room flats, which saw 1,378 units change hands, up 13.6 per cent, Huttons Asia data showed.

In the upcoming BTO exercise in June, the government will offer about 6,900 flats in Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang and Woodlands.

Given the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, higher energy costs may contribute to inflation and slow down the timeline for interest rate cuts, said ERA Singapore’s Lim.

“In this environment, homebuyers tend to adopt a more cautious approach,” he added. “Some HDB homeowners might delay their upgrading plans, while those with more flexibility may prefer BTO flats over resale units, as they are willing to wait.”

Noting that the macroeconomic outlook has become “more uncertain”, HDB said that households “should continue to exercise prudence when purchasing properties and taking out mortgage loans”.