HK home prices to fall 30% by end-2015: Barclays

[HONG KONG] Barclays plc joined UBS AG and Bank of America Corp in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting that home prices will fall at least 30 per cent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.

A "downward spiral of home prices is likely" as developers and homeowners adjust expectations, analysts Paul Louie and Zita Qin wrote in a report yesterday. They assigned a "negative" rating to the Hong Kong property sector and said that office prices will drop 20 per cent.

Barclays' forecast exceeds the predictions of a series of brokerages that have downgraded Hong Kong property this month and implies the biggest plunge in prices since 1998. Hong Kong home prices more than doubled since the start of 2009 on record-low interest rates and lack of supply, prompting the government to impose extra taxes and tighten lending restrictions.