Luxury condo sales rebound to levels before 2023 ABSD hike, buoyed by PR, Singaporean buying

[SINGAPORE] Sales of high-end condominiums rebounded this year, even as stiff stamp duty barriers have deterred foreign buyers and depressed investment demand since 2023.

While hesitant to call it a recovery, market watchers say factors driving sales in 2025 include lower borrowing costs, revived interest in prime projects with a flurry of new launches, and Singapore’s continued safe-haven appeal among the globally wealthy.

Data compiled by List Sotheby’s International Realty (List SIR) showed that transactions in non-landed residential properties ranging between S$5 million and S$10 million totalled S$825.6 million in the third quarter of 2025, the highest since S$1.05 billion in sales was recorded in Q2 2022.

For the July-to-September period this year, 133 non-landed homes priced between S$5 million and S$10 million were sold, marking a 30.4 per cent increase from the previous quarter and just shy of the 140 units sold in Q1 2023, before the introduction of fresh market cooling measures.

In the ultra-luxury segment – which consists of condos priced at S$10 million and higher – sales rose to S$318.9 million in Q3, a 27.2 per cent increase from the quarter before, according to PropNex data. The transaction value was also higher than the S$274.6 million recorded in Q1 2023. 

Sixteen units in this segment were sold in Q3 2025, up 14.3 per cent from the previous quarter. This was almost on par with the 17 units sold in Q1 2023. 

For the first three quarters of 2025, there were 47 condo units sold above the S$10 million threshold, slightly higher than the 45 sold between Q1 and Q3 2023, and the 25 transacted in the first three quarters of 2024. 

In April 2023, the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) was doubled to 60 per cent for foreigners; ABSD for Singaporeans buying a second property went up to 20 per cent.

Sales of condos priced between S$5 million and S$10 million plunged in that quarter, from 140 units in Q1 2023 to 86 units in Q2 2023. However, sales of condos priced from S$10 million rose slightly, from 17 units in Q1 2023 to 19 units in Q2 2023. 

Data tracked by PropNex showed that in Q3 2025, buying by Singapore citizens and foreigners with permanent residents (PR) status was back at levels seen just before the ABSD changes kicked in.  

Out of the 16 non-landed properties sold at over S$10 million in the most recent quarter, Singapore citizens bought five units (31.3 per cent). PRs picked up eight units, foreigners bought two and the remaining unit was acquired by a company.

In comparison, Q1 2023 saw 17 units sold from S$10 million. Foreigners bought seven units, Singaporeans purchased five and the remaining five were bought by PRs. 

Significantly, the median unit price of S$4,490 per square foot for transactions done at S$10 million and over in Q3 2025 was the highest on record based on URA Realis caveat data since 1995, said PropNex chief executive officer Kelvin Fong. 

 “We think the key drivers of such sales include the scarcity of large-format, ultra-luxe non-landed homes in prime areas in Singapore, as well as the country’s safe-haven appeal, which is seen to be important in capital preservation,” he added.

List SIR research director Han Huan Mei agrees that size matters. The 56 non-landed private homes sold for S$10 million or higher in the year to end-October had an average size of about 4,250 square feet (sq ft). About 45 per cent of these units were new homes spanning from 1,798 to 10,452 sq ft. 

 “These are luxurious, bespoke developments with designer finishes and tend to be located in the heart of Orchard Road and in the Nassim enclave,” said Han.

Even older resale projects, such as St Regis Residences and Regency Park, are still actively transacted in the market, she noted. 

“Their per-square-foot prices may be less than S$3,000 psf, but the quantum of each unit is high because of the large floor area.” 

Among new projects, 21 Anderson proved a striking example of buying interest at the top end of the market. The ultra-luxury condo sold 12 units out of 18 available in a space of six months, at an average of S$4,999 psf, according to data from URA’s Realis database.

The project filled a gap at the right timing, said Linda Chern, CBRE Singapore’s head of residential services. 

Two 10,452 sq ft units at the Kheng Leong project sold for S$52.25 million each in July and August, marking the most expensive transactions in 2025. 

Christine Sun, Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group’s chief researcher and strategist, pointed out that a 20th floor unit at Park Nova spanning 5,899 sq ft chalked up a new high in psf pricing, when it was sold for S$38.9 million or S$6,593 psf in January.  

While luxury condos have performed well this year in terms of both transaction volume and value, market watchers have mixed views on whether the improving numbers signal a recovery. 

Sun said: “Funds are coming into the ultra-luxury and luxury segments as the transactions were widespread across over 90 resale projects and 12 new projects.” 

Still, PropNex’s Fong said the number of transactions for both luxury and ultra-luxury condos are still generally below the levels seen in the few quarters before Q2 2023, and it may be “premature” to conclude that demand has recovered.

“We believe that the ABSD continues to play a role in suppressing demand for ultra-luxe condos, particularly among foreigners (non-PR).” 

Fewer foreign buyers

List SIR’s Han said that since the ABSD hike, nearly all buyers of luxury condos have been citizens, PRs and nationals from countries which enjoy the same stamp duty treatment as locals under free trade agreements.

Realion’s Sun said foreign buyers contributed to just 9.6 per cent of purchases of luxury non-landed homes in the Core Central Region (CCR) worth at least S$5 million in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 37.8 per cent during the same period in 2023. 

Mainland Chinese buyers, including PRs, remained the second-largest group of purchasers for deals worth at least S$5 million after Singaporeans, but their numbers have fallen. 

There were 31 purchases by Chinese buyers between Q1 and Q3 2025; this was about 11 per cent of the 282 buyers in total, down from the 82 buyers which accounted for 30 per cent of buyers in the same period in 2023.

Narrowing price gap

Fong said that since the second half of 2024, the price gap has narrowed between new non-landed homes sold in the CCR and Rest of Central Region, reviving buyer sentiment in the CCR.

“The price growth in the CCR has essentially lagged behind the entire private home market which has risen by some 40 per cent since the pandemic,” said Nicholas Keong, Knight Frank Singapore’s head of residential and private office. 

“With a narrowing price gap between the prime locations versus the rest of the island, value opportunities have emerged for the observant homebuyer,” he added. “And this includes options for capital preservation and legacy transfer, especially when a substantial proportion of the completed freehold inventory is in the CCR.” 

Fong said that while the price gap widened to 21.6 per cent in Q3 due to the strong performance of CCR launches including River Green and UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard, it may narrow again as there are no new major CCR launches in November and December that will prop up prices.

Sun said: “As interest rates continue to drop, we expect an increase in luxury home sales as more local investors may be prompted to enter the market. Possible rate cuts in December may lower borrowing costs and stimulate the market.”

List SIR’s Han said: “Overall, the outlook for luxury homes priced between S$5 million and S$10 million in 2026 is positive. We expect an average quarterly sales volume of around 100 units, which is similar to 2025, peppered with occasional ultra-luxe purchases.”