New Zealand hikes rates again, warns homeowners to prepare for more

Wellington

NEW Zealand's central bank raised interest rates for the second straight month on Wednesday (Nov 24) to keep surging consumer prices in check and warned homeowners in the country's red hot housing market to get ready for more hikes.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the official cash rate (OCR) a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75 per cent in the final policy meeting of the year, as the country shakes off its pandemic slump and prepares to reopen to the world.

Most economists in a Reuters poll predicted that the RBNZ would raise rates by 25 basis points. Investors were more aggressively poised, pricing in a 40 per cent chance of a 50 basis point hike, which meant that the local dollar sold off after the smaller move was announced.

Indeed, RBNZ governor Adrian Orr said the bank had considered a range of options, including a 50 basis point hike, but added that the 25 basis point increase placed its "best foot forward".

"At the moment, with everything we have in our hands, we see steady steps of 25 basis points back to levels where the OCR is marginally above the neutral rate as the most balanced approach we can take," Orr told reporters after the meeting.

The RBNZ has said in its forecasts on Wednesday that rates would reach 2.5 per cent by 2023 and go higher by December 2024.

"Given the heat in the economy we think the RBNZ is far from done," said Ben Udy, economist at Capital Economics. "We expect the bank to continue to hike rates to around 2.0 per cent by the middle of next year."

Shortly before the RBNZ meeting, the government announced an easing of some of its tight border restrictions with people allowed to enter the country again from January.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.6 per cent to US$0.6905, as investors poised for a larger hike, unwound positions. Swaps pricing sharply pulled back, with benchmark 2-year swap rates dropping about 20 basis points.

Two-year government bond yields also fell about 10 basis points, as did 10-year yields.

Central banks globally are now reducing massive monetary stimulus introduced during the pandemic. In the Asia-Pacific, South Korea and Singapore have also tightened policy in recent months as inflation pressures build. South Korea's central bank is expected to raise interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday.

Large amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus injected to alleviate pandemic pain have helped New Zealand's economy recover strongly and pushed inflation to its highest and the jobless rate to its lowest in over a decade. Annual inflation hit 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in more than a decade while the jobless rate fell to 3.4 per cent, matching its lowest on record from December 2007.

The stimulus also fired up house prices, which have doubled over the past seven years, making them among the least affordable of OECD nations.

That has increased public scrutiny on the RBNZ, which has been blamed for the property market boom.

To cool the market, the government earlier this year slapped taxes on property investors and ordered the central bank to have regard for housing when setting policy.

But the boom has continued, leaving new homeowners with larger debts as mortgage rates rise.

Orr defended the stimulus, which he said was a response to unprecedented uncertainty following the pandemic, but acknowledged the growth in household debt. "Homeowners who have just entered the market with extremely high leverage levels have to be incredibly wary and have to understand they have to weather the higher interest rates," Orr said. REUTERS