Singapore private home prices flatten in Q1, inching up 0.6% after year-end jump
Sales volume also falls, by 15%, in the first quarter
[SINGAPORE] Private residential prices rose more slowly in the first quarter of 2025, increasing 0.6 per cent over the previous three months, flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed on Tuesday (Apr 1).
This follows a 2.3 per cent jump in Q4 last year, and a 3.9 per cent rise for the whole of 2024. Sales volume fell 15 per cent in the first quarter to 6,299, from 7,433 in the previous quarter.
Prices of non-landed private residential properties rose by a marginal 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter, after having risen 3 per cent in the prior quarter.
In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee noted early signs of price moderation in both the public and private housing markets. Flash estimates showed a 1.5 per cent increase in Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale prices in the first quarter of 2025, down from a 2.6 per cent rise in Q4 last year.
The deceleration in home prices comes as a slew of new launches hit the market, with some setting benchmark prices in their respective sub-markets. For example, The Orie in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) set a new benchmark price in Toa Payoh, with an average price of S$2,704 per square foot (psf) when it launched in January.
In the Outside Central Region (OCR), Elta in Clementi and Parktown Residence in Tampines set new benchmark prices in their respective neighbourhoods at launch – at S$2,537 psf and S$2,360 psf, respectively.
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Excluding executive condominiums (ECs), Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck estimated that more than 3,400 units were sold in Q1 – the highest recorded for first-quarter sales since 2021’s 3,493.
While some projects sold well at benchmark prices, Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia at CBRE, pointed to more realistic price premiums at others, relative to the secondary market.
Chia Siew Chuin, head of residential research at JLL, predicts challenges ahead for the private home sales market. Though factors such as low unemployment and healthy household balance sheets continue to provide support, growing economic headwinds may temper the impact.
She said: “The mass market segment, bolstered by a strong HDB resale market, may see this support wane as overall market conditions soften.” Buyers are increasingly price-sensitive, given an expanding range of new project launches and resale properties.
Wong Xian Yang, Cushman & Wakefield research head, said: “In view of global economic and local real estate uncertainties, (developers) have opted for competitive pricing strategies to drive sales momentum.”
Leonard Tay, Knight Frank research head, noted that with land prices almost stabilising, selling prices are not climbing up the way they previously did when land and construction costs were going up.
Nicholas Mak, Mogul.sg chief research officer, said the quarterly growth rate of 2.3 per cent was also not sustainable in the medium to long term, since it surpasses the growth of household income in the city-state.
Further, he noted that URA’s private housing price index has risen by 54.2 per cent since Q2 2017 – outlasting the previous housing boom between 2009 and 2013, when prices grew by 62.2 per cent. It may therefore be time for prices to start moderating, he said.
By region, prices of non-landed homes consequently grew across the board, albeit at a slower pace in Q1 – up 0.6 per cent in the prime Core Central Region (CCR), compared to the 2.6 per cent increase previously.
In the RCR, prices climbed 1 per cent, after registering an increase of 3 per cent in Q4. Those in the suburban OCR inched up 0.3 per cent, from a 3.3 per cent increase in the preceding three months.
PropNex chief executive officer Ismail Gafoor added that the price gap between new non-landed private homes sold in the CCR and that in the RCR and OCR is now at its narrowest in over 20 years – at 4.1 per cent between the CCR and RCR, and 20.6 per cent between the CCR and OCR.
Over in the landed sector, prices rose 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter in Q1, swinging from a 0.1 per cent decline previously.
Stepping up supply
In his Facebook post, Minister Desmond Lee said the government will maintain a “strong supply” of housing to meet the needs of homebuyers and further stabilise Singapore’s property market.
Following the government land sales (GLS) programme for the first half of 2025, 5,030 private homes will be released, similar to the 5,050 units of land supply for the H2 2024 confirmed list. This is almost 60 per cent higher than that on the confirmed list between 2021 and 2023, he noted.
The programme will also result in a higher number of ECs released, amid prices of new EC launches and land hitting new highs in the last year. Close to 1,000 EC units were launched under the GLS Confirmed List in H1 2025, and a further 1,000 EC units will be released in the second half.
“This brings the total EC supply to 2,000 units for the whole of 2025 – the highest EC supply in recent years, almost double the average yearly supply launched from 2021 to 2023,” added the minister.
Song of CBRE predicts a slowdown of activity since most new launches in the rest of 2025 are in the CCR, “which have higher price points and may not generate the same kind of volumes”.
She believes that new home sales for the year may come in at 7,000 to 8,000 units, though it would still be an improvement from 2024’s 6,469 units.
She said: “With Singapore’s (gross domestic product) growth expected to moderate over 2025 against the backdrop of ongoing global trade frictions, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty, we narrow our full-year home price increase to 3 to 4 per cent (from 3 to 6 per cent), to signal a flat to marginal easing from the 3.9 per cent growth in 2024.”
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