US homebuilder sentiment declines for a third straight month
CONFIDENCE among US homebuilders fell for a third straight month in July as elevated interest rates weighed on sales and kept construction financing costs high.
An index of housing market conditions from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo slipped one point to 42, the lowest level this year. The median estimate in a Bloomberg of economists surveyed was 43.
A gauge of sales expectations for the next six months was one of the few positives in an otherwise downbeat report on Tuesday (Jul 16), with the forward-looking measure rising for the first time since March.
The NAHB’s gauges of prospective-buyer traffic and current sales both fell to fresh lows for the year.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has been hovering around 7 per cent over the last couple months. Prospective buyers, many of whom are waiting for cheaper borrowing costs, may soon find see some relief.
Mortgage rates tend to mirror rates on US government debt, and the 10-year Treasury note yield is near the lowest level since March on expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon lower interest rates.
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Overall, 31 per cent of builders cut prices in July, compared with the 29 per cent who did so in the prior month, according to NAHB. The average price reduction was 6 per cent for the 13th straight month, while the share of builders who reported using sales incentives remained at 61 per cent.
Demand for new homes has fallen off a bit with higher mortgage rates in recent months, but remains more resilient than in the resale market, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading said in a research note last week.
The share of available new homes that sold in June – or the industry’s absorption rate – rose 1 per cent over May, during a month when seasonal factors usually push sales down 6 per cent. To be sure, the heavy use of sales incentives contributed to that, Reading said.
Builder sentiment in the Northeast showed the biggest drop among the four US regions this month, with the measure falling by 15 points to 47, the lowest reading since October. Sentiment eased in both the Mid-west and West, while staying flat in the South. BLOOMBERG
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