Singapore private home prices up 0.3% in Q4, 2.5% for 2019: URA flash data

PRIVATE home prices in Singapore rose for the third consecutive quarter in 2019, as the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) flash estimate for the fourth quarter of 2019 shows that its overall price index for private homes was up 0.3 per cent over the prior quarter.

For 2019 as a whole, prices were 2.5 per cent higher, versus the 7.9 per cent rise seen in 2018, according to the URA flash data released on Thursday morning.

In the third quarter of 2019, the overall price index for private homes was up 1.3 per cent.

Christine Li, Cushman & Wakefield's head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, pointed out that prices rose by a much smaller margin in 2019 vis-a-vis 2018. She said: "This further strengthens the notion that there is no excessive exuberance in the Singapore residential market and prices are likely to stay in line with economic fundamentals and affordability. As such, there is no need for the government to intervene at this juncture, as the market is finding its own equilibrium."

In the fourth quarter of last year, the prices of landed property rose 4 per cent, after rising 1 per cent in Q3 2019.

Meanwhile, price increases of non-landed private homes varied by region in the fourth quarter. Prices of non-landed private residential properties in the core central region (CCR) fell by 3.7 per cent, versus a 2 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

In the rest of central region (RCR), prices fell by 1.4 per cent, after chalking up a gain of 1.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

Prices in outside central region (OCR) bucked the trend by going up 2.9 per cent, compared to a 0.8 per cent increase in the preceding quarter.

Christine Sun, head of research and consultancy at OrangeTee & Tie, attributed the slower pace of price increase to the decline in prices in non-landed homes in CCR and RCR. She noted that fewer super-luxury homes, or higher-priced units, were transacted in the CCR in Q4. Going by URA data as at Dec 30, 2019, 57.6 per cent of non-landed private homes in CCR were above S$2 million in Q4 2019, whereas this percentage was higher in Q3 (61.8 per cent) and Q2 (63.4 per cent), she pointed out.

In addition, 12.9 per cent of non-landed private homes in CCR were sold above S$3,000 per square foot (psf) in Q4 2019, down from 20.3 per cent in this psf range in Q3 2019 and 21.6 per cent in Q2 2019. She added: "This could be due to a lack of super-luxury new launches in the final quarter of last year. In comparison, new projects like Boulevard 88, 3 Cuscaden and RV Altitude were launched in the earlier part of 2019 or final quarter of 2018, which could have boosted sales in the second and third quarters of last year."

Similarly, fewer non-landed private homes in RCR were transacted at a higher psf range of above S$2,000 psf in the final quarter of last year (14.8 per cent), compared to Q2 2019 (22.1 per cent) and Q3 2019 (27.9 per cent), Ms Sun highlighted.

For 2019 as a whole, prices in CCR fell by 2.6 per cent, while prices in RCR and OCR went up by 2.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent respectively.

URA's flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-December. The statistics will be updated on Jan 23 when URA releases its full set of real estate statistics for the fourth quarter of 2019.

"Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution," said URA.