Covid-19 outbreaks, seasonal trends stymie travel recovery in January arrivals: Analysts

SINGAPORE has recorded its first month-on-month decline in international arrivals since the Covid-19 pandemic hammered global travel last year.

Some 23,150 visitors showed up in January, going by recent Singapore Tourism Board (STB) data. In a setback to hopes of a travel recovery, the figure marks a 3.6 per cent dip from December's 24,010 arrivals. The number of visitors had been on a gradual uptrend since the trough of 750 visitors last April.

Year on year, the number of visitors in January was down 98.6 per cent from the 1.69 million guests in January 2020.

Fingering the recent coronavirus case counts in regional markets such as Indonesia, OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said: "The drop is probably attributable to the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and the tightening of social restriction measures."

Fresh outbreaks can stymie the border reopening; Ms Ling cited the aborted Singapore-Hong Kong air travel bubble as an example.

Still, the monthly fall "may partly have been due to seasonal factors" as well, suggested Maybank Kim Eng economist Lee Ju Ye, who noted that December is more popular for travel.

The recent decrease came on the back of fewer arrivals from the Republic's top two tourism markets. Chinese arrivals fell to 6,600 in January, from 7,660 in the month before, while 2,630 visitors came from Indonesia, from 4,200 previously.

Meanwhile, the number of travellers from Malaysia dipped to 1,040, from 1,250 in the month prior.

The drop from these countries more than offset an increase in arrivals from India, where the number of travellers rose to 3,950 in January, from 2,250 the month prior.

All the same, Ms Lee noted that the number of arrivals from China was still higher than it was last November, while "visitors from other major regions such as Europe are also on an upward trend", climbing to 1,690 in January from 1,210 in December.

"Neighbouring Malaysia would be another market that could significantly move arrivals up when borders are eased," Ms Lee added in an e-mail.

Ms Ling cited vaccine roll-outs as a potential upside for the tourism recovery. Markets to watch include Indonesia, as well as Britain, where "vaccination is fairly advanced compared to other developed markets".

Singapore welcomed just 5,380 overnight visitors in January, down 99.6 per cent year on year, while the average length of stay was 23.9 days.

The STB defines international visitors as people who spend less than a year in Singapore. It excludes returning citizens and permanent residents and pass holders, Malaysians arriving by land, non-resident air and sea crew, and air transit passengers.