PMET layoffs, vacancies suggest ongoing restructuring; no broad-based displacement by AI: MOM

[SINGAPORE] Amid a strong labour market in 2025, professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs) saw more retrenchments but also more job vacancies.

Despite concerns about artificial intelligence (AI), the trends suggest an “ongoing restructuring and skills transition” rather than falling demand for PMETs, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) said in its latest quarterly Labour Market Report on Friday (Mar 20).

As for the year ahead, MOM said in a release: “We expect the labour market to continue expanding in 2026 given the more positive economic outlook, but the global economic environment remains uncertain and dynamic.”

In the first quarter of 2026, “firms are expected to remain cautious in their hiring and wage decisions”. Fewer expect to hire: 43.3 per cent, down from 44.1 per cent in the previous quarter’s survey.

While more firms expect to raise wages – 26.4 per cent, up from 19.3 per cent – this share remains below levels seen in the past two years, noted MOM.

In Q1, retrenchments are also expected to edge up in some outward-oriented sectors, though remaining within non-recessionary levels.

Employment growth driven by non-residents

This outlook comes after the labour market grew in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full year.

In Q4, total employment grew by 17,700, less than the third quarter’s 25,100 rise but beating the 12,700 rise in the first half of the year.

This comprised growth of 3,100 for residents and 14,600 for non-residents, with the latter driven by construction and manufacturing.

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Seasonal hiring also drove both resident and non-resident employment growth in administrative and support services, as well as retail trade.

For the full year of 2025, total employment grew by 55,500, up from 44,500 in 2024.

Of this, resident employment grew by 11,600, driven largely by financial services as well as health and social services. The 43,900 growth in non-resident employment was driven by construction.

In 2026, resident employment is expected to grow at a similar or slightly slower pace, said MOM.

AI concerns, PMET retrenchments

In its latest report, MOM looked at trends in PMET roles “to assess whether concerns around AI-driven job displacement are borne out by data”.

At a media briefing, MOM director for manpower research and statistics Ang Boon Heng said the data shows “no conclusive evidence” of a broad-based AI-driven displacement.

Rather, trends suggest an “ongoing restructuring and skills transition”, he said. In its report, MOM said the signs of restructuring “warrant continued monitoring”.

PMET retrenchments have trended up in both number and incidence, though both remain “objectively low”, said MOM.

In 2025, the incidence of PMET retrenchment rose to 10.1 per 1,000 resident PMETs – above the pre-recessionary average – from 8.6 per 1,000 in 2024.

PMET retrenchments were higher in the financial services, information and communications, and professional services sectors.

However, these same sectors also had relatively high PMET job vacancies in December 2025, with a combined total of 14,600 – up from 13,900 in the year-ago period.

Said MOM: “The overlap between higher retrenchments and higher PMET vacancies in these sectors suggests that while some jobs are being displaced as firms restructure, hiring continues for others.”

Retrenchments “within non-recessionary norms”

Overall, there were 3,690 retrenchments in Q4, comparable to 3,670 in the previous quarter. MOM said that the Q4 figure “remained low and within non-recessionary norms”.

In Q4, the main reason for retrenchment was business reorganisation or restructuring (75.2 per cent). Other reasons were poor business or business failures (17 per cent); concerns of high costs (8.3 per cent); and a recession or downturn in the industry (1.8 per cent).

For the full year, retrenchments totalled 14,490. The incidence of retrenchment was 6.3 per 1,000 employees, up from 5.9 per 1,000 in 2024.

The re-entry rate of retrenched residents also improved in Q4. Within six months, 57.4 per cent re-entered employment, up from 55.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

Q4 rise in vacancies

Job vacancies grew to 77,700 in December, from 69,600 in September. This reversed the dip from June, when there were 76,200 vacancies – and shows that labour demand “remained firm”, noted MOM.

The rise was mainly driven by construction, due to manpower demand for major infrastructure projects such as Terminal 5 and the expansion of Marina Bay Sands.

Vacancies also rose in the information and communications, professional services, and health and social services sectors. But there were fewer openings in food and beverage services, as well as transportation and storage.

The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons rose to 1.58 in December, from 1.5 in September.

Unemployment rates remained low and stable in December at 2 per cent overall – 2.9 per cent for residents, and 3 per cent for citizens.

The resident long-term unemployment rate held steady at 0.9 per cent in December, “indicating continued stability in job prospects”, noted MOM.

Residents aged below 30, however, saw unemployment rise marginally to 5.8 per cent in December – the highest since March 2024 – from 5.6 per cent in September.

Their long-term unemployment rate also rose slightly to 1.5 per cent in December, from 1.3 per cent in September.

Still, MOM said that this increase is “more contained” than in other advanced economies, where unemployment among younger workers has risen “more noticeably”.

The ministry added: “Taken together, these suggest that suitable job matches are taking longer for some young job seekers as they navigate the job market to find positions that align with their skills and expectations.”