Singapore can avoid a Europe-style Covid-19 resurgence: Ong Ye Kung

Hong Kong

ONE of the highest vaccination rates in the world and growing natural immunity could protect Singapore from a Covid-19 resurgence like those currently engulfing Europe and the United States, even if another wave hits as expected, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said.

Singapore's immunised population is half as likely to die of Covid-19 than influenza, while those who are not vaccinated are 5 times more likely to succumb to the infection, he said in an interview with Bloomberg News on Wednesday (Nov 24) at the Asia Summit on Global Health in Hong Kong.

That shows that the virus can be endemic, provided enough people are immunised, he said.

About 85 per cent of Singaporeans are fully vaccinated, and the country is the third-most inoculated place in the world, according to Bloomberg's vaccine tracker.

Some 94 per cent of those eligible for Covid-19 vaccines have gotten them, according to the Ministry of Health, and nearly a quarter of people have already received a booster shot, Ong said.

"Can we keep ICU (intensive care unit) cases and deaths as low as possible, to the extent that it is no different from an influenza wave?" he said.

"I think it's possible. Even when it's a wave, you can withstand it. There are casualties but you are able to work through it with society still functioning very normally."

The number of people infected in Europe and many parts of the US is rising again, with some places reporting record increases and imposing new restrictions.

While the vaccines protect against severe disease, deaths are also climbing, particularly among the unvaccinated, and some hospitals are starting to ration care for the first time since the pandemic began nearly 2 years ago.

The virus' cyclical nature has policymakers in other parts of the world trying to anticipate when they may get hit again, and if so how hard, with vaccines altering the outlook.

Singapore has slowly been pivoting away from a Covid-zero strategy of walling out the virus, gradually allowing more cases and opening its border to different countries.

The relaxation of mitigation measures means the virus will continue to spread, but vaccinations, boosters and other steps like mask wearing and social distancing will keep the number and severity of infections down, Ong said.

The next 2 weeks will be critical for Singapore, he said. Officials will not decide whether to ease pandemic restrictions further, or to hit pause on the reopening, until it is clear where the outbreak is headed, he said.

Singapore, which has been seeing around 1,500 new cases a day - up from double digits at the start of the year, but down from the peak above 4,500 last month - recently allowed 5 fully vaccinated people from different households to dine together in a restaurant, up from 2.

"Cases ought to go up. On the other hand, we are also boostering at a fairly decent pace. We are also seeing more people recovering safely, and there will be natural immunity," he said. "With all 3 measures in place, it applied brakes on the natural rise of infections. We will have to monitor closely for the next 2 weeks, and then we will know."

Singapore recorded 2,030 cases in the community on Wednesday, more than 1,000 fewer than on the same day last week and the lowest Wednesday total since September.

The city-state's week-over-week infection ratio dropped to 0.75, the lowest number logged since officials began releasing it.

One of the next relaxation moves will be to ease work-from-home requirements, Ong said, without giving a timeline for when or how that may occur.

Singapore reopened dining-in in August, and just weeks later began battling a new wave of cases, prompting its leaders to pull back and re-impose some virus measures.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said last week the country is taking a "step-by-step" approach to reopening.

It has also taken a tough line on inoculation, saying those who choose not to take the shots will have to pay for any hospital treatment if they get Covid-19.

While easing restrictions has triggered rising case rates, severe disease and deaths have remained a fraction of what occurred in other countries.

Ong said he expects the virus to return and hit Singapore again even after this wave is contained, since that is its normal cycle. Singapore, he hoped, will be able to withstand the onslaught.

"The direction is clear, we want to progressively open up more and move towards a stage where it becomes an endemic disease," he said. BLOOMBERG