Singapore exports may fall further; weigh on GDP: analysts

AFTER a larger-than-expected fall in October, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are likely to continue to decline at least into the year-end amid weakening external demand, said analysts. As falling exports dampen gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some economists have also lowered their forecasts for the third quarter and into next year.

October’s NODX contracted by a surprise 5.6 per cent year on year from a high year-ago base, reversing from the preceding month’s 3.1 per cent rise. Both electronic and non-electronic exports fell, Enterprise Singapore data showed on Thursday (Nov 17). The decline – the first since November 2020 – was significantly larger than the 1.7 per cent fall forecast by economists in a Bloomberg poll.

Key exports will continue to decline in Q4 2022 and throughout the first half of 2023, as external demand weakens, especially for electronics, said Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye. They maintained their NODX growth forecast at 5 per cent to 6 per cent for 2022 and -4 per cent to -1 per cent for 2023.