Singapore exports surge in November as electronics boom continues; NODX up 24.2%

SINGAPORE exports rose for the 12th straight month in November, with the help of non-electronics products such as specialised machinery, petrochemicals and primary chemicals, although the electronics industry continued to expand as well.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth surged by 24.2 per cent year on year, picking up pace from the 17.8 per cent expansion in October. The growth was also ahead of the median forecast of a 15.3 per cent increase in a private Bloomberg poll.

Electronics NODX rose by 29.2 per cent, compared with 14.9 per cent in the month before, data from government agency Enterprise Singapore (ESG) showed on Friday (Dec 17). The agency attributed the growth to exports of integrated circuits amid robust global semiconductor demand.

Meanwhile, non-electronics shipments expanded by 22.7 per cent, growing from 18.8 per cent in the previous month. Specialised machinery exports were up on semiconductor demand and petrochemicals rebounded from an earlier down-cycle, ESG noted.

Alvin Liew, senior economist at UOB, said in a note that the better-than-expected trade figures in November should "give a boost to Singapore's growth outlook for the fourth quarter of 2021", on the back of a favourable base effect and export growth momentum.

"While the favourable base effect may wear off a bit for the upcoming December, the strong momentum for electronics exports could still add to a strong NODX finish for 2021. Full-year NODX growth outlook will likely exceed 10 per cent in 2021," he added.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan economic and policy research analyst Ong Sin Beng called the print robust, noting: "Following a period of weakness in the third quarter of 2021 due to regional supply-chain disruptions, NODX has staged a strong recovery and is now 3 per cent below its first-quarter of 2021 peak in seasonally-adjusted level terms."

NODX rose year on year to 9 of the Republic's top 10 markets in November, on strong demand from mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea for products such as specialised machinery, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and electronics.

Thailand was the only key market to see shipments from Singapore decrease in November.

Meanwhile, NODX to emerging markets grew by 54.2 per cent, mainly on demand from the Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam region, South Asia and Latin America.

On a seasonally adjusted, month-on-month basis, NODX increased by 1.1 per cent - cooling from 4.1 per cent in October - to S$16.5 billion.

Said JPMorgan's Ong: "As supply-chain bottlenecks ease, we expect NODX strength to persist in the next few months."

Non-oil re-exports, a proxy for wholesale trade, rose by 20.7 per cent year on year in November, against 17.7 per cent the month before, with growth in both electronics and non-electronics.

Overall, total trade rose by 31.6 per cent, faster than the 24 per cent the month before. ESG attributed the growth to strength in both oil and electronics trade.

Singapore is on track for its fastest pace of full-year NODX growth in a decade in 2021, according to official projections. This is then expected to ease to between 0 and 2 per cent in 2022 on the high base, although ESG has called the outlook a "cautiously optimistic forecast".