Singapore factory output rises 14.3% in November, moderating from October’s growth

[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s factory output jumped 14.3 per cent year on year in November, led by a surge in the volatile biomedical cluster, data from the Economic Development Board showed on Friday (Dec 26).

Still, this fell shy of private-sector economists’ median estimate of 15 per cent in a Bloomberg poll, and marked a slowdown from October’s revised 28.9 per cent growth.

Economists were mixed on the outlook for December and into 2026, though they noted that November’s moderation comes after two months of strong growth.

Excluding biomedical manufacturing, industrial production growth was 4.6 per cent year on year, sharply down from October’s revised 15.5 per cent growth.

And on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output fell 10.2 per cent, in contrast to October’s revised figure of 11.2 per cent growth.

Excluding biomedical manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted monthly fall was 2.5 per cent, reversing from the previous month’s revised 11.4 per cent growth figure.

Unclear outlook

For 2026, Maybank economist Brian Lee expects Singapore’s manufacturing to be supported by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure, easing monetary conditions and expansionary fiscal policies.

Strong manufacturing growth in October and November could also mean a “notable acceleration” in fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth for 2025, he said, with a “likely upside” to Maybank’s “already bullish” full-year forecast of 4.2 per cent.

For UOB senior economist Alvin Liew, however, November’s sequential pullback means less upside risk to his 2025 GDP growth forecast of 4.4 per cent.

This assumes a further slowdown of manufacturing growth in December, he noted. If there is a resurgence in output instead, then full-year GDP growth could exceed this estimate.

Moody’s Analytics economist Denise Cheok maintained her full-year GDP growth forecast at 4.2 per cent, expecting Q4 growth to slow as front-loaded demand – which had temporarily boosted regional manufacturing – “is set to roll back in the coming months”.

She expects factory output to “remain volatile” heading into 2026.

“While demand for chips and other peripheral products driven by the AI boom is offsetting some of the impact from US tariffs, it is uncertain how long this will last,” she said.

Strong performance by electronics, pharmaceuticals

All clusters recorded growth in November except for general manufacturing.

Maybank’s Lee noted that in recent months, manufacturing growth has been led by pharmaceuticals and electronics – product groups that are exempt from US tariffs for now.

The linchpin electronics sector grew 8.9 per cent, slowing from 25.6 per cent in October.

The infocomms and consumer electronics segment expanded 87.7 per cent on higher production of server and server-related products. Following this were electronic modules and components (16.3 per cent) and semiconductors (4.9 per cent). However, computer peripherals and data storage declined 25.5 per cent.

Economists said global AI-related demand continues to drive electronics exports and production, said economists.

Lee attributed November’s slower electronics growth partly to higher base effects, noting that it was still the year’s second-best performance. “There has been no payback from fears of front-loading since the reciprocal tariffs were imposed in early August.”

But Cheok pointed out “some moderation” in the semiconductor segment, indicating that growth driven by the front-loading surge is starting to taper off.

Biomedical manufacturing was the best-performing cluster, surging 79.3 per cent year on year.

This was driven by a 124.3 per cent growth in the pharmaceuticals segment, with higher production of active pharmaceutical ingredients. The medical technology segment grew 11.3 per cent, with sustained demand for medical devices.

Next was transport engineering, with output jumping 24.2 per cent. This came on the back of a 33.8 per cent expansion in aerospace, bolstered by higher production of aircraft parts as well as sustained maintenance, repair and overhaul jobs from commercial airlines.

Marine and offshore engineering rose 21.7 per cent from higher activity levels in shipyards. In contrast, the land segment declined 26 per cent.

Other clusters that recorded rises were precision engineering (2.4 per cent) and chemicals (2.2 per cent).

General manufacturing was the only one to record a loss, with output contracting 4.8 per cent year on year.

The food, beverages and tobacco segment recorded marginal growth of 0.1 per cent, while the printing and miscellaneous industries segments slid 12 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively. The latter’s decline was due to lower output in paper and paperboard containers and structural metal products industries.