Singapore narrows 2025 NODX forecast to ‘around 2.5%’, expects ‘moderated growth’ in 2026

[SINGAPORE] The Republic has narrowed its 2025 full-year forecast for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to “around 2.5 per cent” – from 1 to 3 per cent – in line with a projected moderation in the second half of 2025.

In its quarterly review of trade performance on Friday (Nov 21), EnterpriseSG said it expects robust artificial intelligence-related demand and high gold prices to provide “some support” to NODX in Q4, though performance may be weighed down by the high base in November and December last year.

For 2026, EnterpriseSG forecasts a “moderated growth” of 0 to 2 per cent.

It noted that this is in line with the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s projection of slower merchandise trade growth in 2026, with global trade expected to expand by 0.5 per cent, down from 2.4 per cent the year before.

“This slowdown primarily reflects the materialisation of tariff-related impact and the easing of frontloading effects,” said EnterpriseSG.

It also flagged downside risks including the potential re-escalation of tariff actions and sector-specific tariffs, which could “raise global economic uncertainty and dampen demand”.

NODX declined 3.3 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2025, reversing from the previous quarter’s 7 per cent expansion.

Electronics grew at a moderated pace compared with Q2, up 7.1 per cent on year from the previous quarter’s 10.5 per cent growth. The increase was led by PCs, integrated circuits and disk drives.

Overall, Q3’s performance was weighed down by the decline in non-electronics, which outweighed the growth in electronics, said EnterpriseSG.

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This was driven by weakness in the food preparations, petrochemicals and volatile pharmaceuticals segments. Non-electronic NODX declined 6.5 per cent, reversing from the previous quarter’s 5.9 per cent rise.

NODX to the US, Indonesia and China declined in the third quarter, by 30.7 per cent, 29.3 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively.

Total merchandise trade grew 8.5 per cent on the year in the third quarter, extending the 7 per cent rise in the preceding quarter.

Total services trade expanded by 0.8 per cent year on year in Q3, following the 2.3 per cent rise in the previous quarter.