Singapore’s GDP up 4.6% in Q1, missing forecasts

[SINGAPORE] The economy grew 4.6 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2026, moderating from the 5.7 per cent expansion in the previous quarter, advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) showed on Tuesday (Apr 14) morning.

Q1’s growth was also below private-sector economists’ median expectations of 5.8 per cent, a Bloomberg poll indicated.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 per cent, reversing the 1.3 per cent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

While MTI said that growth “remained resilient” in Q1 2026, it warned that the US-Israel-Iran conflict may weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters.

The moderation in Q1’s growth was driven primarily by a sharp deceleration in the manufacturing sector, which expanded by 5 per cent year on year, down from 11.4 per cent in Q4.

Growth in the sector was driven by higher output in the electronics, transport engineering and precision engineering clusters, which more than offset declines in the biomedical manufacturing, general manufacturing and chemicals clusters.

Sequentially, the sector contracted by 4.9 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis, pulling back from the 4.5 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

In contrast, the construction sector expanded by 9 per cent year on year, accelerating from the 4.6 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Both public and private-sector construction activity supported the expansion during the period. 

Quarter on quarter, construction output rose by 3.7 per cent, faster than the 0.2 per cent expansion in the preceding quarter.

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On the whole, the services-producing industries expanded 4.7 per cent on the year, slightly slower than the 4.8 per cent in Q4. 

Within the services sector, the wholesale and retail trade and transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 6.7 per cent year on year, extending the 6.8 per cent rise previously.

Growth in the wholesale trade sector was driven by the machinery, equipment and supplies segment, while the transportation and storage sector benefited from strength in the storage and other support services segment. 

The information and communications, finance and insurance, and professional services cluster maintained steady momentum, expanding 3.9 per cent year on year, up marginally from 3.7 per cent in Q4. 

All constituent sectors posted gains, with strong demand for IT and digital solutions, alongside solid performance in banking and insurance, driving the advance.

The group of sectors comprising accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services, as well as other services increased 2.3 per cent year on year, easing from the 2.9 per cent growth in Q4.

All sectors within the group posted growth during the quarter with the real estate sector, in particular, expanding on the back of a steady rise in developer activities. 

On a sequential basis, growth in the services-producing industries slowed to 0.6 per cent, from 1 per cent in the previous quarter.