Singapore’s key exports up 11.6% in November; economists say delayed impact of US tariffs could weigh on 2026 outlook
November’s jump was led by shipments of pharmaceuticals and supported by electronics
[SINGAPORE] Even as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom continues to support electronics shipments in the near term, economists warned that Singapore’s export growth in 2026 could be weighed down by the delayed impact of US tariffs.
The Republic’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) expanded 11.6 per cent year on year in November, exceeding market expectations of single-digit growth, data from Enterprise Singapore showed on Wednesday (Dec 17).
November’s expansion moderates from October’s downwardly revised 21.7 per cent growth. Private-sector economists had projected a 6.8 per cent year-on-year increase, a Bloomberg poll indicated.
The rise was led primarily by volatile pharmaceuticals and supported by electronic products, such as integrated circuits and PCs, said EnterpriseSG.
As DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng sees it, Singapore’s exports performed “better than feared” in 2025.
“This was due to the staggered roll-out of US tariffs over the course of the year, while these trade restrictions turned out to be not as blanket and burdensome as initially feared,” he said.
He added that while the Republic’s electronics exports could “hold up for some time” due to “relentless” AI-related demand and US tariff exemptions on electronics goods, “the current electronics upcycle is starting to look mature”.
“We are monitoring the downside risks from lingering threats of US semiconductor tariffs – with the ultimate downside impact dependent on the eventual conditions – as well as any disorderly pullback in exuberant sentiment over the AI boom,” he said.
OCBC chief economist Selena Ling noted that November’s reading marked the second consecutive month of double-digit growth.
Given the month’s “upside surprise”, she now expects the full-year NODX growth forecast to be closer to the 5 per cent handle even as she noted that the outperformance was driven significantly by volatile pharmaceuticals.
Both electronics and non-electronics exports grew in November. This brings NODX growth for the first 11 months of 2025 to 4.8 per cent year on year.
UOB associate economist Jester Koh said this puts Singapore’s NODX on track to exceed the official full-year estimate of “around 2.5 per cent”. He expects 2025 NODX growth to come in at 4.7 per cent.
Electronics exports jumped 13.1 per cent on the year, extending the preceding month’s 33.1 per cent increase.
Integrated circuits (22.9 per cent), PCs (48 per cent) and bare printed circuit boards (26.8 per cent) contributed the most to the expansion in electronics NODX, which Ling said indicates “still resilient demand” for the AI-led boom in the sector.
Koh noted that in the year to date, electronics shipments have outperformed that of non-electronics “across a broad range of indicators”, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index and industrial production.
Meanwhile, non-electronics shipments rose 11.1 per cent, after October’s 18.1 per cent increase. The main growth drivers were pharmaceuticals (369.8 per cent), pumps (361.2 per cent) and non-electric engines and motors (123.2 per cent).
The surge in pharmaceutical shipments was partly because of favourable base effects, said Chua, adding that delayed implementation of US tariffs on branded and patented pharmaceutical products “likely also provided temporary relief and a positive backdrop for drug exporters”.
Outlook for 2026
For 2026, Chua expects Singapore’s export momentum to be “restrained” in tandem with a weaker global trade cycle due to the US tariffs.
He cited lagging impacts from higher tariffs globally, the downside risks of additional semiconductor levies, and the “unwinding” of front-loaded orders “after having withstood the shock well” this year.
Similarly, Koh projects NODX growth to slow to 1.2 per cent, on the upper end of the official 2026 forecast range of zero to 2 per cent.
This takes into account the delayed tariff impacts, “while base effects are likely to weigh heavily on electronics exports growth, particularly from (the third quarter of) 2026 onwards”, he said.
For 2026, Ling maintained her NODX growth forecast at 1 to 3 per cent year on year, on account of 2025’s high base.
She said that the outlook remains uncertain because of several factors: the anticipated slowdown in American growth, market optimism about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, a possible re-escalation of US-China trade tensions, and the implementation of US product-specific tariffs and the ongoing volatility in the AI industry.
Performance by market
In November, key exports to all but four of Singapore’s top 10 markets rose.
NODX to Indonesia contracted by the largest extent at 33.9 per cent, reversing a 13 per cent expansion in the previous month. This was followed by Japan at 27.6 per cent contraction, extending a 0.3 per cent decline the month before.
Other markets posted growth in November, led by the United States at 106 per cent, followed by the European Union (66.3 per cent).
Overall, total trade grew 8.8 per cent year on year last month, extending October’s 23.1 per cent expansion.
