Planned COE supply hikes in 2025 may not mean lower premiums

IN 2024, Certificate of Entitlement (COE) supply started to recover from the lows of recent years. The question for 2025 is whether continued hikes in supply will be enough to bring down premiums, which have stayed relatively high since 2022.

COE supply seems poised to expand by at least 17 per cent in 2025, boosted by older vehicles exiting the market; the government’s continued cut-and-fill approach; and the injection of additional COEs.

But the picture is muddied by the fact that the number of deregistrations is hard to predict, and uncertainty over how many of an announced 20,000 additional COEs will come in 2025.