Singapore braces for export slowdown as front-loading ‘payback effects’ bite

[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s export growth is expected to weaken further in 2025, with private-sector economists warning that “payback effects” from earlier front-loading activities will weigh on the city-state’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) amid global trade headwinds.

OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said NODX is likely to come in at the lower end of Enterprise Singapore’s (EnterpriseSG) official 2025 forecast of 1 to 3 per cent, noting downside risks to the bank’s own 2 per cent projection.

“The bigger-than-expected bout of recent NODX weakness may imply some downside risk to the about 1 per cent year-on-year growth forecast, since the United States tariff and global growth slowdown story is still changing dynamically,” she said.