Singapore downgrades 2024 export forecasts again on weaker-than-expected recovery

SINGAPORE has narrowed its 2024 full-year growth forecast for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to “around 1 per cent” year on year (yoy), from 4 to 5 per cent; and that for total merchandise trade to “around 5 per cent”, from 5 to 6 per cent previously.

This is because of a worse-than-expected recovery at the start of the second half of the year, primarily due to volatile segments, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said in its quarterly review of trade performance on Friday (Nov 22). This comes after October’s NODX performance came in “weaker than expected” earlier this week.

EnterpriseSG on Friday highlighted that it had flagged downside risks in its previous review, including a recovery that is softer than anticipated in H2 2024. These could result in full-year NODX growth that is below the forecast range, it added. “Since then, the weakness has materialised, as NODX performed weaker than expected, primarily due to the volatile segments such as pharmaceuticals and ships and boats, which could continue to weigh on Q4 2024 performance,” it noted.